Business

300,000 jobs at 'high risk' of automation, says Deloitte

ROBOTS in Belfast at the recent Titanic Belfast exhibition
ROBOTS in Belfast at the recent Titanic Belfast exhibition

THE robots are definitely coming - but even if yours is one of the 300,000 'high risk' jobs in Northern Ireland, take comfort in the fact that the economy as a whole is benefitting from the the onward march of automation.

Business advisory firm Deloitte, which has more than 300 employees Belfast (but it doesn't say if any could eventually be replaced by a machine) says smart software has already added billions to the Northern Ireland economy.

After analysing ONS labour force data for the period between 2001 and 2015, researchers found the proportion of routine jobs at 'high risk' fell by 8.7 per cent - while high skilled jobs at 'low risk' were up 7.7 per cent over the 15-year period.

And, with each new job in one of the fastest-growing lower-risk occupations paying, on average, up to £10,000 more than the high-risk, routine job it replaced, the net economic contribution for Northern Ireland was £3.4bn.

So we still need clever people to operate the clever machines, although the 'personal touch', it seems, is also an untouchable domain when it comes to robotic replacement.

Beauticians, refrigeration engineers and sports coaches led the growth in 'low risk' jobs, while 'high risk' positions carried out by sewing machinists, industrial cleaners and painters and decorators declined significantly.

The massive increase in the beauty market in Northern Ireland - the number of beauticians increased by a massive 717 per cent over the period in review - seems the most likely to remain a robot-free zone, with intelligent machines having yet some way to go before mastering the perfect make-over.

But despite the financial benefits, Deloitte said 300,000 jobs in the north are currently at high risk of automation; 200,000 at medium risk and another 300,000 at low risk over the next 20 years.

Jackie Henry, Deloitte’s senior partner in Northern Ireland, said the automation of jobs and "shift from brawn to brains" was now well under way in Northern Ireland, which, she believed was benefitting, not losing out.

"In line with the advances in technology and automation we expect to see in the next 20 years, high-risk, routine occupations are being replaced in our local economy," she said.

"But at the same time, we are seeing good growth in those jobs at less risk of automation, as well as increased economic value.

"Northern Ireland has a lot going for it, with many companies reporting an increase in output levels and new orders. But we cannot be complacent. Business, educators and government must work together to ensure young people enter the local workforce with the skills suited to the jobs of tomorrow and those already in work are able to re-skill during the careers and continue contributing to the local economy."

The Boston Consulting Group recently predicted that by 2025 up to a quarter of jobs will be replaced by either smart software or robots, with virtually no occupation immune to some degree of artificial replacement.

A study from Oxford University has also suggested that 35 per cent of existing UK jobs are at risk of automation in the next 20 years, including taxi drivers who risk being supplanted by autonomous cars and even doctors who are already assisted by robots in operating theatres.