There’s so much still up for grabs in every section of the Allianz Football League that, as regards calculating permutations, the old adage applies: Take one game at a time.
Six sides are still in with a shout of making the Division One Final, even Tyrone – although in truth that’s more of a very, very faint whisper.
Four teams remain in contention for promotion from Division Two, four from Division Three – and six in Division Four, albeit some by massive mathematical stretches.
There are so few certainties, though: among them, Derry can’t be relegated, and Roscommon and Monaghan can’t reach the Division One Final. Sure, half the teams in Divisions Two and Three can’t go up either – but those halves can still go down.
Donegal and Armagh look pretty dominant in Division Two, Down and Westmeath even more so in Division Three, while some rather extraordinary things would have to happen to prevent Laois going up from Division Four (or for Tipperary to leave that bottom section).
At the other ends of the tables, Monaghan and Roscommon are obviously in serious danger of going down from Division One, Kildare and Louth most likely to take the drop from Two, and Limerick and Wicklow both pointless so far in Division Three.
It wouldn’t be much of a surprise if the current state of play largely prevailed at the end of round seven.
And yet and yet and yet…
There’s clearly scope for change in a few of the positions for promotion/ finalists and those to be relegated.
Division One is the tightest of them all at present, with only six points between table-topping Derry and Monaghan languishing at the bottom. That gap is nine points in Division Two, 10 in Division Three, and nine in Division Four (not that there’s any relegation there).
Indeed there’s a mathematical possibility, however slight, that any of the seven sides below pole position in the top flight could yet end up relegated. What’s more, even reaching seven points might not be enough for Galway to stay up.
For now, though, this look is largely at what can occur in round six.
DIVISION ONE
It’s basically win or bust for Monaghan, who know that a draw won’t necessarily finish them, although it would still only keep alive faint hopes of survival for the Farneymen - but defeat away to Tyrone would definitely condemn them to the drop.
Such a result would not necessarily relegate Roscommon, unless they lose at home to Kerry and Galway pick up at least a point from their home game with Dublin. The Rossies need to beat the Kingdom and then win away to Derry to ensure survival remains in their own hands – seven points would keep them safe.
As stated above, seven points doesn’t absolute guarantee Galway staying up – don’t ask me to explain – but the Tribe could survive if those results outlined occur.
As regards reaching the final, Derry would massively increase their chances with a win in Mayo. Even with wins, others would still have much more work to do in round seven.
Round six: Galway v Dublin; Tyrone v Monaghan; Roscommon v Kerry; Mayo v Derry
Round seven: Derry v Roscommon; Dublin v Tyrone; Kerry v Galway; Monaghan v Mayo.
DIVISION TWO
Armagh can confirm promotion by winning at home to Cavan. Donegal can only do likewise if they beat Kildare and the Breffnimen don’t win at the Athletic Grounds.
A win for Fermanagh away to Louth would definitely keep the Ernemen safe – and probably push the wee county down, depending on how Cork do in round six.
Even a draw would help Fermanagh because if they can reach six points then they cannot be relegated – although their last match is away to neighbours Cavan.
Louth probably need to get to five points, so can’t really afford to lose to Fermanagh before travelling to take on even more troubled Kildare.
If Cork collect even one more point they will be assured of survival. The Rebels have tricky ties, away to Meath and then home to Armagh, but even without adding to their tally the odds are against them going down, as two out of Fermanagh, Louth, and Kildare would need to overtake them.
Kildare, still stuck on zero points, obviously have to win their last two matches, but first up are table-toppers Donegal. The Lilywhites should have home advantage but both their remaining games are in their temporary home of Carlow. As stated above, the ‘right’ results for Fermanagh and Cork would render Kildare’s efforts moot.
Round six: Armagh v Cavan; Kildare v Donegal; Louth v Fermanagh; Meath v Cork
Round seven: Cavan v Fermanagh; Cork v Armagh; Donegal v Meath; Kildare v Louth
DIVISION THREE
One more win will assure Down of promotion – their problem is that they still have to face their two serious promotion rivals, Westmeath (away) and Clare. The Banner County know that two more victories, first off at home to Antrim, would almost assure them of going up.
Westmeath can confirm going up if they collect one more point in round six than Clare. Indeed a draw would be enough for both Down and Westmeath if Clare lose to Antrim.
With the possibility of promotion now gone for Antrim after a third consecutive defeat, the Saffrons still have to guard against the possibility of relegation. That’s a very slim danger, though, as even two heavy defeats, against Clare and Wicklow, might not condemn Andy McEntee’s men to the drop, given that Wicklow and Limerick are both pointless so far.
One more point would absolutely assure Antrim of staying up.
Limerick and Wicklow both need to pick up points in both their remaining matches in order to have any possibility of staying up – and even if either of them were to reach four points that would not guarantee their survival. They meet at Aughrim in round six and a win for either team would ensure that the other would be relegated.
Offaly will almost be safe if they win in Sligo, but the Faithful need three more points to be sure of survival.
Round six: Wicklow v Limerick; Clare v Antrim; Sligo v Offaly; Westmeath v Down
Round seven: Antrim v Wicklow; Down v Clare; Offaly v Limerick; Sligo v Westmeath
DIVISION FOUR
Laois are nearly assured of promotion, especially as they face table-proppers Waterford (albeit away) in round seven – they host second-placed Leitrim next time out. One more point definitely would elevate Justin McNulty’s men.
The race for second spot could be a rabid dogfight. Leitrim, Wexford, Longford, and Longford are all locked on six points, with those first two even having the exact same scoring difference. Even Tipperary still have the tiniest of chances of going up, with just four points so far, but realistically they’re not in the running.
At this stage winning both of their last two matches won’t guarantee promotion for any of the chasing pack – but Longford will almost assuredly go up if they get to 10 points as they meet rivals Carlow then Wexford.
Round six: Laois v Leitrim; London v Waterford; Tipperary v Wexford; Longford v Carlow
Round seven: Carlow v London; Leitrim v Tipperary; Waterford v Laois; Wexford v Longford.