Opinion

Shrug of the shoulders to greet latest Stormont deal

Peter Robinson and Martin McGuinness prepare for their latest charm offensive in support of Stormont House Agreement v4.0
Peter Robinson and Martin McGuinness prepare for their latest charm offensive in support of Stormont House Agreement v4.0

THE tragic absurdity of the disconnect between public expectation and political reality will be highlighted once again this week when it is expected that Stormont House Agreement v3.0 becomes available for download.

Or is it v4.0? It's hard to keep track of the litany of failed deals, broken promises, lack of trust and absence of progress which have come to characterise the way Sinn Fein and the DUP, the Tweedledum and Tweedledee of our present difficulties, do business as the dominant parties in the executive.

Whatever it ends up being called, the latest deal to trundle out of the shadows and in to the dimly flickering light of public interest may well be the most underwhelming of the lot.

Previously there has at least been the pretence of trying to deal with the big problems that have been staring us in the face since before Sinn Fein assumed dominance in nationalism and the DUP eviscerated David Trimble.

This time, though, there has been little sense of trying to get a comprehensive all-party deal on the web of issues which have consistently stymied stable and effective devolution.

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Instead, the focus seems to have been on giving the two big parties enough cover to stay in the executive until next year's scheduled assembly elections.

You don't need to be Sherlock Holmes to realise that Stormont has been in its death throes for some time - even Inspector Clouseau has worked that one out - and the best this new deal will do is to keep its corpse twitching until rigor mortis sets in.

It's a modest enough ambition, perhaps depressingly so. But for the main players - the DUP, Sinn Fein and the British and Irish governments - it has the distinct benefit of being achievable.

They have calculated that in order to keep 'the show' - in the sense that the show is like a really bad episode of Give My Head Peace - on the road, then whatever deal is presented need be neither wide-ranging nor have the agreement of the other Stormont political parties.

Having dug in so hard over welfare, we can expect some jiggery-pokery and budgetary sleight of hand - though no more money from London - to satisfy Sinn Fein.

Beyond a few bibelots, don't imagine there will be much in it, if anything, for the DUP.

Peter 'in-out' Robinson has bottled every self-declared '10 days to save Stormont' deadline and his desire to avoid an early election plainly means he will agree to almost anything - and the governments and Sinn Fein know it.

Still, expect Mr Robinson and Martin McGuinness to confidently sell the deal as a great and glorious achievement, a new chapter in the shared futureTM of Northern Ireland, etc etc.

Whether it is noticed at all by a public wearied by the merciless Mobius twist of deal-broken deal-crisis-talks-deal is another question.

A corporate shrug of the shoulders is more likely, especially when it's hard to avoid the impression that the machinations at Stormont are more about satisfying politicians than serving the public and providing us with good government; therein lies the gaping disconnect referred to earlier.

Even if it is capable of enduring, the latest political deal will be unveiled at a time when there is a gathering sense of Mr Robinson's leadership being on borrowed time.

On top of his evident health difficulties, his political touch - once so sure and careful - seems to have deserted him.

Never mind the shambles of what devolution on his watch has failed to achieve; more recently there's also a trail of busted deadlines, bogus threats to resign, the disastrous in-out ministerial strategy, the Nama controversy and the hubris around the co-option of a former Spad to the assembly and then to the role of junior minister.

It all points to the fact that the Robinson era is drawing to its inevitable conclusion.

There is even a persuasive scenario in which Mr Robinson will announce his retirement later this month at his party conference, paving the way for Arlene 'Gatekeeper' Foster or Nigel 'The Mighty' Dodds to step into his role.

But that's for another time; back to the here and now, and a new deal should at least give Stormont yet another chance to show it can be more than a surrogate for real government.

This should be at the top of MLAs' priorities. The credibility of Stormont, already at Sepp Blatter depths, has taken a further hammering in recent weeks and months, whether it be over the job losses at Michelin, the in-out ministerial policy, an inability to agree a budget or any number of other embarrassments.

Doing a deal, however feeble, is not enough. Tweedledum and Tweedledee need to show they can put even a weak agreement into action and serve up something that passes for proper government.