The subtext of Sinn Féin’s position at Stormont is that it is a terrible negotiator. How else could it have let London, Dublin and unionism away with two decades of allegedly ‘outstanding commitments’?
Sinn Féin’s message in walking away from the executive is that it has learned its lesson and there will be no return to the status quo.
But what if this is just more terrible negotiating?
Three months ago, republicans had the DUP bang to rights over the Renewable Heat Incentive scandal.
Turning that into a landmark election victory put the whole of unionism on the run.
Now Sinn Féin has lost the run of itself, demanding that everything it did not pin down over the past 20 years be delivered overnight, with no devolved government or direct rule if it does not get its way.
London’s interests are “unacceptable”, as is Dublin’s lack of interest. There must also be a border poll, same-sex marriage and special status for Northern Ireland inside the EU - and nothing needs to be pinned down in detail this time around because respect and equality mean everyone should just give Sinn Féin what it wants. Failure to “get this” is not demonstrating “the right attitude” and will lead to a withdrawal from talks. The party in question represents 18 per cent of the electorate.
This might be a credible opening position if the other side was being equally implacable. However, all the DUP wants is to get back into office, so meeting half-way would not come anywhere close to what Sinn Féin claims to need. Or as one talks source put it to the Belfast Telegraph: “there couldn’t be any horse-trading because there weren’t any horses for trade with the DUP”.
Nevertheless, Sinn Féin was reportedly offered an Irish and Ulster-Scots languages act, which it rejected - perhaps for being the wrong kind of equality.
The collapse of Stormont may be a crisis for the DUP but that does not necessarily translate into a crisis for the unionist electorate, which has no fear of direct rule.
Insisting that Dublin provide joint authority instead is pie in the sky.
Sinn Féin’s position is so absurdly imbalanced that people are showing admirable respect just by taking it seriously. The disproportionate nature of the party’s demands raises obvious suspicions of playing a bigger game - drawing out a Stormont crisis to keep its supporters energised and Irish unity on the agenda.
If so, what constitutes success for this approach?
Going for broke with another election or cycle of elections could make Sinn Féin the largest party and strengthen its case for a border poll.
Coming within 1,000 votes of the DUP makes the idea of ‘one more push’ alluring to the nationalist electorate. At the very least, the SDLP should be squeezed into irrelevance.
The problem with this plan is that Sinn Féin has alerted everyone else to it by overplaying its hand in Stormont negotiations.
The DUP has been transformed in many unionist eyes from the villain of RHI to the victim of republican scheming, so people will now rally behind it, even under Arlene Foster’s dreadful leadership.
Unionists are also readier than nationalists to arrange electoral pacts.
In the long run, both these developments will damage unionism - it will be binding its fate forever to the DUP, objectively a very odd and archaic party.
However, the long run in this context is somewhere between 10 and 30 years, during which Sinn Féin will not become the largest party and cannot conceivably win a border poll.
That is too long a period to play the current game at Stormont.
It assumes voters will continue rewarding Sinn Féin for knocking devolution over, blame only unionists and Tories for the limbo that results and keep the flame of anger alive at some memory of ‘disrespect’ that already looks like an excuse to stir the pot.
Sinn Féin grew its vote during the five fraught years of suspension from 2002 to 2007 but the prize then was replacing direct rule with devolution. Replacing devolution with deadlock is a much harder sell.
All the magnificent anger in the world does not make politics any less the art of the possible. Sinn Féin’s only realistic options in the next few years are to return to Stormont with a fraction of what it is asking for or admit it has given up on power-sharing altogether, reverting Northern Ireland to its British and unionist default.
How is that a success?
newton@irishnews.com
