While the north has been plodding through the most tedious election campaign anyone can remember the south has taken a huge leap into the twenty-first century by electing as Fine Gael leader and therefore next Taoiseach a man who was born in 1979, the year Margaret Thatcher became prime minister of Britain.
Around the world his sexual orientation has been the headline but what about his politics and in particular what does his election mean for here? So far there has been more analysis and general coverage in Mumbai where his father hails from than in the media in the north apart from this paper.
He’s going to have to hit the ground running because next week talks about restoring Stormont begin with a deadline of June 29. Varadkar won’t even be elected Taoiseach before June 13 and then he will have to appoint a cabinet. The odds are he will shift Charlie Flanagan.
Flanagan is one of the old guard along with Kenny and Michael Noonan and Frances Fitzgerald. At least Noonan had the sense to go along with Kenny. It seems Flanagan and Fitzgerald intend to hang on until sacked.
The word is the man who ran Varadkar’s successful election campaign, Eoghan Murphy, might step into foreign affairs. Murphy, TD for Dublin Bay South is entitled to expect a plum cabinet job as a reward for his work for the new Taoiseach.
At 35 he’s even younger than Varadkar and ideally qualified for foreign affairs having specialised in nuclear disarmament working at the UN Institute for Disarmament Research at Geneva. Should he go to foreign affairs he would be number four in the cabinet after Varadkar, Simon Coveney who will be Tánaiste and whoever goes to Finance.
Murphy’s problem is that he represents Dublin because the way cabinets are set up in the south TD’s expect a geographical spread of Mercs. Too many top ministers are from Dublin so Murphy may have to be content with a less important role.
Whoever goes to foreign affairs will be thrown in at the deep end. Varadkar himself is a blank sheet when it comes to the north. Yes, he has made noises about Irish unity in the course of his campaign to lead Fine Gael but has said nothing of substance.
He’s aware of the constitution of the north being on the political agenda after the DUP stupidly backed Brexit but he has talked only vaguely about Irish unity or the need to think of ‘shared sovereignty’. Obviously he hasn’t read the Conservative party’s manifesto.
Then again whoever wrote the Conservative manifesto obviously hasn’t read the Good Friday Agreement or even the 1993 Downing Street Declaration both of which state unequivocally,‘it is for the Irish people alone, by agreement between the two parts respectively and without external impediment to exercise their right of self-determination.’
So it doesn’t matter what the Conservative manifesto says or does it mean since the Conservatives oppose joint authority they will only support Irish unity?
Varadkar has also said he wants a White Paper on Irish unity drafted by November 2017. That may be because he wants to upstage Fianna Fáil who say they intend to produce a blueprint before the autumn. On the other hand Varadkar is a guy who doesn’t let any grass grow under his feet.
A government White Paper is a lot different from a blueprint from the opposition and if he does produce it this year it will be a huge development. It will be the first time since partition an Irish government has presented a policy on Irish unity.
Varadkar is also opposed to a border poll at present. Well who wouldn’t be since no one knows what they’d be voting for: a unitary state, a federal state, confederal?
What would the question be?
Until the government produces its White Paper, if indeed Varadkar remembers he proposed it, there’s no point in a poll. If he does, then at least people will know what they’re voting for.
