Only 5% of the population of Northern Ireland are recorded as being infected with Covid-19, ie 80,000 people.
If the reinfection figure R is 0.8 there must be at least 100,000 actually infected. About 600 of those 100,000 have died ie 0.6%.
Having had no contact with the virus, 95% of the population have had no opportunity to develop immunity to it, or die from it.
Sooner or later if the whole population is exposed to the virus the majority will develop immunity and, based on the present figures, 9,600 will have died.
Assume that the land, sea and air borders of NI are closed, to contain the virus already here and prevent the ingress of more infections from elsewhere. If R remains at 0.8 the virus will burn itself out in 52 cycles of infection, having infected 500,000 people and taken 3,000 lives. The remaining uninfected 1.1 million people will have no acquired immunity and will be at risk of infection and death if the borders are reopened. If each infectious cycle lasts for two weeks that takes us to June 2022. With a lower R figure there will be fewer infections and fewer deaths, but more people without acquired immunity.
If the borders are reopened, the subsequent rate of infections and deaths is incalculable, as is the length of time it will take for the whole population to acquire immunity.
A vaccine is unlikely to be available before February 2021 and maybe not even by June 2022. In reality, the borders will not be closed. There will be no clearly definable end to the crisis and no realistic estimate of the number of deaths.
Other than protecting health services from an overwhelming number of intensive and critical care patients, and preserving the lives of the most vulnerable for a few months by self-isolation and lockdown, what has been achieved and at what cost, economically, socially, mentally, emotionally, physically and educationally?
Will the current relaxation of the lockdown restrictions, driven by economic pressures and public complacency, undo what has been achieved?
Are the relaxations an admission that Covid-19 cannot be beaten by any means other than by closing the sea and air borders of this island until the virus has burned itself and keeping the borders closed if the remaining population have not developed immunity or received
a vaccine?
The alternative to the lockdown measures applied would have been to allow the virus to run its course without any intervention until the whole population had been infected. There would have been 9,600 deaths but a more robust and healthier residual population immune to infection from anywhere.
So what was it all about, other than a political exercise in being seen to be doing something in face of the inevitable?
DENNIS GOLDEN
Strabane, Co Tyrone
Disruption to getting North back into competitive business can’t be entertained
The rush is on across all four UK nations’ economies to offset the potential disaster of serious job losses. Northern Ireland should be heading the queue with innovative proposals and sound fiscal calculations. Our survival from dropping into an industrial and commercial backwater is dependant on staying ahead of the pack.
While genuine arguments persist over safe distancing in other sectors, disruption to getting Northern Ireland back into competitive business cannot be entertained. Furlough will end with many regrettable casualties. Until people are confident of their sustainable job prospects cash will not circulate into hospitality venues.
The executive should be out of the traps backing Diane Dodds with incentives to attract new investors and boost existing companies. The inevitably of a short-term recession cannot by default be turned into a Northern Ireland-only depression. What’s urgently required is a clear signal that ministers are already up to speed with the initiative preparation work ready to roll.
Positive action should include making both money and contracts available to businesses of all sizes, giving them a quick pick-up start when coming out of the lockdown.
OFMDFM should be pressurising the Treasury for long-term, low interest loans in order to finance and advance executive and local government shovel-ready contracts covering a host of interests. Even investing directly in businesses in exchange for shares could be considered as recently suggested by the Social Market Foundation.
The time to demonstrate to the markets confidence in our manufacturing, agricultural producers, engineering, commercial and services employers and to sell the Northern Ireland work ethic and entrepreneurial spirit is now. It’s a challenge not a gamble which must be managed responsibly not shirked.
DAVID McNARRY
Strangford, Co Down
Social distancing
Now children if we could just settle down, stay one metre away from classmates and remember no shouting singing or hugging, no passing over books or pens or sharing tablets or phones.
Let’s begin with some basic maths. When 5% of the population were infected with Covid-19 more than 800 people died. If easing the lockdown means more people become infected what is the result? Yes, John. Lots and lots and lots more deaths.
Now children if you and I and the government know what will happen when the other 95% of the population are exposed to the virus what will that make the government?
Yes Mary, complacent. Martin, culpable. James, willingly endangering lives to protect the economy. OK children it is time to change gloves and put on fresh ones, adjust your face masks and remember no talking while eating lunch at your table.
Teacher. Yes Eamon. Teacher why do we sit only one metre apart when everywhere else, including Stormont, it is two metres. Ask your mummy or daddy or grandparents to ask their MLA the next time they get to be within two metres from him.
FRA HUGHES
Belfast BT14
Uncertain times
Across Northern Ireland, many non-essential shops and business are reopening. It is expected that, as with shops that remained open throughout lockdown, visual markers will be used to signify the correct distance from others.
With social distancing now part of everyday life, it is important to highlight that not everyone can maintain the required distance as easily as others.
People who are blind or partially sighted can struggle to know when they are getting closer to someone. And guide dogs, of course, aren’t trained to help in this regard. In general, people are supportive, but there have been occasions when individuals with sight loss have been challenged or even shouted at for coming too close to others, when the reality is, they simply weren’t aware of it.
In such uncertain times, tensions over distancing can rise but we would ask that if you feel someone seems to be ignoring the restrictions, consider for a moment whether that person, rather than being careless, might not be able to fully see you.
55,600 people in Northern Ireland are living with a degree of sight loss. Please be aware that some people do need just a little extra thought.
DR JACQUELINE WITHEROW
RNIB NI, Belfast
