MY FELLOW columnist Benny Tierney wrote last week that Joe Kernan, James McCartan and Conor Gormley all tipped Tyrone to win the Ulster Championship at a recent talk night.
With five league games now played, we have a bit more meat on the bone to make predictions for the rest of the year. This week, I’ll look at the teams on one side of the Ulster draw - Derry, Tyrone, Cavan and Armagh.
Mickey Harte will be delighted that Tyrone have gained promotion back to Division One. It’s well known Tyrone don’t play friendly matches and, as a result, Mickey has always placed huge importance on every game.
It’s unusual for a team to challenge for All-Ireland honours without playing in the top division and it’s vital for Tyrone to be playing the top teams on a regular basis at this stage of their development. There are a lot of young players pushing for places in the team.
You only find out so much about players in League football and even less when competing against the lower standard of teams in Division Two. The squad, however, looks a lot stronger this year with the likes of Niall Sludden performing well in his first year on the panel, and Richard Donnelly and Ruairi Brennan both pushing on from last year.
Tyrone still have concerns in their inside-forward line, though. They need greater consistency in this area, so they can rely on someone to get two-to-three points from play per game. It’s great having the spread of scorers Tyrone have, but you still want a leading man in your forward line when you come up against the best teams.
Championship opponents Derry have had a disappointing league campaign to date. Damian Barton is clearly trying to improve the attacking side of Derry’s game. However, Galway, Tyrone and Laois have all put up big scores and that will certainly be a concern.
Getting that balance is the toughest job for any manager and Derry are in the early stages of their development under Barton. I would expect a more organised and balanced Derry side at Celtic Park in May.
Tyrone have already beaten Derry three times in 2016, with the most comfortable being their recent league match. Despite Derry’s lack of success in the Ulster Championship in recent years, they only lost to Donegal by the kick of the ball the last two seasons.
The first round of the Championship always brings a bit of the unknown in terms of team selection and tactics. There has also been a physical edge in the clashes between the two teams this year and I expect it to go up a notch in May.
Tyrone will be expected to come out of Celtic Park with a win, evidenced by them being joint-favourites to win the Ulster Championship. Part of that is due to them being on the easier side of the draw, but there is a feeling that a new team has been built. 2016 is the year Tyrone need to deliver in Ulster.
Wearing my Tyrone hat, the match I’d be most worried about is that first round clash with Derry. Tyrone still have to prove they can be consistent enough to collect a first Ulster title since 2010. The game is perfectly set up for Derry to cause an upset, but Tyrone should win based on the current form.
At the start of the year, I said Cavan needed to bring more to the attacking part of their game. Not much seemed to have changed in the earlier part of the league, but they have averaged over 20 points in their last three games. Those results mean wins in their two remaining games will assure them of promotion to the top division.
I was critical of Seanie Johnston in the past and thought bringing him back into the fold this year was a major risk. However, his performances in the League have been superb and are a major reason for the improved scoring. No doubt there will still be plenty of doubters within the county, but he will continue to build bridges if he keeps up his current level of performance.
The signs are not good for Kieran McGeeney and Armagh. If their form continues they will have a short Championship season and their decline from the team that were a kick of the ball from an All-Ireland semi-final place just two years ago is astonishing.
Looking from the outside, the lack of Crossmaglen players in the squad is difficult to understand and they could certainly do with a greater contribution from the best club team in Ulster. On a positive note, Stefan Campbell has been the shining light of Armagh’s League campaign. He has taken on a leadership role in the forward line and become the focal point of their attack. They need more quality around him and the return of the likes of Kevin Dyas and Ciaran McKeever is much-needed.
The biggest battle Armagh face is rebuilding some confidence within the squad. The lack of belief has been evident during the League when they have failed to hold off Laois from a winning position and then lost an eight-point lead against Galway.
The effect of their 17-point hammering to Cavan showed in that late collapse against Galway; a more confident team would have closed out the game. A bit of needle has built up between Cavan and Armagh with their recent clashes and that history will play a part come May.
Armagh have shown a real lack of discipline over the last year and it’s an area they must improve upon if they have any chance of coming out of Kingspan Breffni Park with a win. Cavan will have to be wary of complacency creeping into the squad having beaten Armagh so well in the league. Armagh will certainly not lack for motivation after that result. I don’t expect a repeat of the league game, but Cavan would seem to have the momentum to get the win.
An Ulster semi-final of Tyrone v Cavan is my prediction and I expect Tyrone to advance to a first Ulster final since 2010 with their greater class being too much.
