THE UK economy surged out of recession with record growth of 15.5 per cent between July and September.
But according to a top economist, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures represent "a bit of a false dawn".
"When data becomes available for the final three months of the year, we will almost certainly see that the UK economy moved back into recession following increased infections alongside renewed partial national lockdowns," said Dr Esmond Birnie, senior economist at the Ulster University Business School.
The 15.5 per cent the third quarter GDP rise compared to a 2.5 per cent decline in quarter one and 19.8 per cent decline in quarter two.
"We don't have as up-to-date data on Northern Ireland’s regional GDP, but it is likely that we broadly track the UK average - perhaps a little bit faster in the initial decline and little bit faster in the recovery," Mr Birnie said.
"But once the euphoria from this latest data evaporates, it is very likely that in the final three months of this year UK GDP will have moved back into decline, perhaps by 2-3 per cent."
The ONS data shows that at the end of September, the economy was still 8.2 per cent below levels seen in February before the crisis struck, despite the record-breaking jump in GDP in the third quarter.
Chancellor Rishi Sunak warned growth is likely to slow further over the fourth quarter and said there are "hard times ahead".
Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey said the figures reveal the "huge gap" between output now and levels seen before the pandemic.
He said news of a potential vaccine is "encouraging for the economy", but added there is "still a long way to go".
Last week the bank forecast the economy will shrink by 2 per cent in the final quarter of the year. It believes the UK will avoid plunging back into recession, pencilling in growth of 2.4 per cent in the first quarter of 2021.
Experts agree the Chancellor's move to extend the furlough scheme to the end of March should help limit the economic damage, with the Bank having also pumped in another £150 billion of quantitative easing.
However, the ONS revealed the UK recovery is lagging behind its European rivals.
GDP in the third quarter was still 9.7 per cent smaller than at the end of 2019 - twice as big as the falls in Italy, Germany and France and nearly three times the size of the US drop, according to the ONS.
