I'VE made a schoolboy error as I begin to write this article. I have gone back to last year to see what I had to say as 2021 drew to a close. I know I usually come down on the optimistic side of economic and political debate but last year’s 2022 preview really took the biscuit.
In that article I speculated about a stable Executive being formed after the election, that political unionism would adapt a more pragmatic position on the protocol and that we would continue to attract significant levels of foreign direct investment. I can only suggest that the mulled wine was a good blend around this time last year.
I do try hard to cling on to my optimism. As a small business owner, as a parent of kids setting out on their own path in the world, I think that’s important.
But we do need to be realistic about what is achievable in Northern Ireland and by who. Politics has let us all down this last year and more, and the DUP has played a particular role as they continue to play to fears over hopes and block the establishment of the Assembly. I am not naive enough to think that an Assembly would have the answer to all our problems but I am pragmatic enough to know we would be better off with a productive local Assembly than without. Maybe it’s wishful thinking.
The economic potential of our unique position in GB / EU is clear to see, to those who want to see it.
In the last week our own statistics and research body NISRA reported on the Northern Ireland economy. Sales from this region into GB rose by 7 per cent one year into the operation of the protocol. Overall exports of manufactured good and services were significantly up: a 23 per cent increase to the Republic of Ireland, a 17 per cent increase to the rest of the EU and 8 per cent to the rest of the world.
Now all of that is in the context of an increase in trade overall post pandemic, but there is no doubt that the protocol has not only protected the Northern Ireland economy from the worst effects of Brexit but it has also facilitated increased economic activity. Not even Jeffrey Donaldson can reasonably argue to the contrary and economists who previously argued that the new protocol arrangements were costing the economy have gone very quiet.
Rather than embracing the advantages of the protocol, those who agitate against it (without offering any alternative solutions) are harming our economy. This week Norbrook, which employs 1,500 people, announced their intention to open a factory in Monaghan, as an assurance against protocol uncertainty. Imagine that, one of our major employers, taking a business decision based on the uncertainty caused by, promoted by, and welcomed by some of our political parties. Bonkers. The Scottish Government have already said they would welcome our protocol arrangements for their region.
The anti protocol arguments are now exposed as being entirely based on politics, and worse than that, on the politics of the extremists. Sadly the online bloggers are now the lightning rods for the DUP policy department, and until that changes the business community will have to make progress in spite of our politicians rather than with their assistance.
But they will, because that’s what business does. So never mind the political rows and stagnation; next year the economy here may still thrive based entirely on the enthusiasm, determination and imagination of our local entrepreneurs.
In 2023 we will see whiskey distilled in Belfast for the first time in 100 years; on the Crumlin Road to be precise, by McConnells. We will see the opening of the first Aparthotel in the north, in Belfast city centre, by Oakland Holdings. We will see fantastic progress on the new transport hub on the Grosvenor Road, the Ulster University will help transform Belfast city centre. International music acts will bring hundreds of thousands to Belfast and beyond.
The lesson is clear, business will thrive, almost as a means of putting two fingers up to the stubborn, recalcitrant politicians. It should’t be this way, but that’s the way it is, for now.
Personally, I cling on to my optimism, though nowadays it is based on individual experience and faith in friends and colleagues. It is Christmas time, our university boys are home again, our house is noisy, the washing machine seems to go 24 hours a day, like the front door. Belfast is buzzing, and everywhere I look there is a friend, old or new, and I love the festive feeling in the air.
One year ago I said I hoped that I would see Spurs winning a trophy, Antrim hurlers and footballers progressing in the GAA championship and me edging closer to a personal best marathon time. There was limited progress on those fronts, but sure isn’t that what 2023 is for?
Happy Christmas to you all.
:: Brendan Mulgrew is managing partner at MW Advocate (www.mwadvocate.com). Follow him on Twitter at @brendanbelfast
