“When the bookmakers don’t know how to price the matches, it tells you an awful lot”: Hard to work out Tyrone-Derry, reckons Tally

Allianz Football League Division One, round one

Tyrone v Derry (O’Neill’s Healy Park, Saturday, 6pm)

“WHEN the bookmakers don’t know how to price the matches, it tells you an awful lot.”

Derry manager Paddy Tally has at least as much insight into his native Tyrone as his counterpart Malachy O’Rourke has into the Oak Leafers, but the former states with certainty: “There are a lot of unknowns going in here.”

Andy Watters: The buck stops with Jarlath Burns and he showed again why he’s the right man to lead the GAA

GAA on TV: What matches can be watched as both the football and hurling national leagues get underway this weekend

Even those with most to gain or lose are unsure, said the Galbally man with a laugh: “A friend of mine called me and said: ‘The bookies aren’t giving ‘overs’ and ‘unders’ here, what’s the story?’

“The new rules of part of it, but in all my years I don’t think I’ve ever seen as strong a Division One as we have this year.”

What we do know is that hosts Tyrone will have a weakened attack, while Derry have a depleted defence.

Tyrone will be without the Canavan brothers, Darragh and Ruairi, after both suffered concussion during their club Errigal Ciaran’s All-Ireland SFC final loss last Sunday.

As for Derry, Chrissy McKaigue has retired from the inter-county scene while Padraig McGrogan and Conor McCluskey remain out injured and Gareth McKinless is involved in Sunday’s Intermediate Club final with Ballinderry.

Tally acknowledges that they will be missed: “Padraig, Conor, and Gareth have vast experience of playing county football at the highest level, and performing really well – plus Chrissy’s retirement, that was four of Derry’s starting six backs not available at the moment.”

However, despite the limited time since his appointment in mid-November, they’ve worked hard on that area of the team:

“With the new rules, especially in the back three, one-to-one man-marking is going to be a big part of it. That’s something we’ve put a good time into so far, but it’s definitely a work in progress.”

Tyrone will still have quality in the likes of Darren McCurry, Seanie O’Donnell, the returned Mark Bradley, and young prospect Eoin McElholm.

The talent is there among the Derry backs too, though, including the likes of Eoin McEvoy and Diarmuid Baker, Tally says: “Eoin’s still a very young man, but he’s a good player. His attitude’s excellent, he really wants the challenge of marking the best players he can get near.

“Diarmuid was outstanding last year and so far with us he’s been really good, showing good signs. We have others, such as Conor Doherty, Donncha Gilmore, and Conor’s younger brother Mark is showing well too.”

A bonus for Derry is that their Glen contingent, including skipper and midfielder Conor Glass, were not involved in Ulster, allowing them involvement with the county.

In contrast, O’Rourke will presumably be without all his Errigal Ciaran club-mates after their run to Croke Park, not just the concussed Canavans. That could mean missing last year’s captain Peter Harte, as well as Cormac Quinn, Ben McDonnell, and Joe Oguz.

Both counties only have three home games, so both will see this an important opportunity to get points on the board.

Both are trying to improve after they fell short of expectations in the 2024 championships.

Although Derry are the reigning Division One title-holders, much of what followed that thrilling penalty shoot-out victory over Dublin knocked their self-belief. They suffered home hammerings by both Donegal and Armagh and although they reached the All-Ireland quarter-finals they exited limply against Kerry.

Tyrone’s own Championship peaked in taking Donegal to extra time in the Ulster semi-final, with Roscommon winning an All-Ireland preliminary quarter-final in Omagh. The only upside of an injury-plagued campaign was valuable experience for younger players.

History doesn’t help anyone making a prediction. The close-fought nature of the rivalry is reflected in the statistics: 53 League meetings, with 24 victories each (and five draws). Even the five meetings in the Dr Lagan Cup resulted in two wins each, plus one draw.

Although Derry trounced Tyrone by 11 points in Omagh in the 2022 Ulster SFC, while the Red Hands won by the same margin up at Celtic Park in both 2016 and 2017 in the provincial championship, the league has been very different.

Home advantage has helped, especially recently. Away wins account for just over a third of the total, but there’ve been none for decades.

The Red Hands have won 14 home games, but Derry have taken eight victories on the road, with two draws in Tyrone. The Oak Leafers’ last league win on enemy ground was back in 1987.

Derry have won 16 on their own patches, but lost 10, with three games drawn. Tyrone’s wait for a win in the Oak Leaf county stretches back even longer, to 1981, when that man Mickey Harte scored four points in their win at Ballinascreen.

If we’re not quite back to traditional ‘catch and kick’ football, Derry are certainly playing ‘catch-up’.

Yet despite having had fewer challenge matches to get to grips with the new rules, a more settled visiting side can definitely push hard for a rare away win.