DUBLIN’S UNDENIABLE DEPTH
OF all the teams that Dessie Farrell has named in his four years in charge of Dublin, the most eye-catching and instructive was the XV he went with for last year’s All-Ireland final.
A forward line that contained Paddy Small, Con O’Callaghan, Ciarán Kilkenny, Paul Mannion, Cormac Costello and Colm Basquel was of the old Brazilian mindset of we’ll score more than you.
That Ciarán Kilkenny is the only one of that sextet you’d maybe say isn’t a recognised inside forward tells its own tale, given how often he has played inside for Dublin and how unbelievably effective he can be in that position.
What we’ve seen in the Dubs’ blistering spring form reflects that, more than any other team, they can get scores from absolutely anywhere.
Ten different scorers against Kerry, Roscommon and Monaghan, nine against Derry and Galway, their average of nine scorers per game is only kept down by that one evening where they had just seven against Mayo.
But they’re the only one of the top ten teams to be averaging nine different scorers every week.
They’ve had 22 different scorers in the league, matched only by Mayo.
Throw in Con O’Callaghan’s rejuvenation and his place towards the head of the scoring charts with 3-25 to his name, you have a team that have become so difficult to defend against.
To spread the scores around has long been the template for most teams but nobody is better at it than Dublin.
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HOW RELIANT ARE DERRY ON SHANE McGUIGAN?
OVER the last 18 months, Shane McGuigan has moved on to a different plain altogether.
He had done well in the summer of 2022 but when it came to the All-Ireland semi-final that year, Liam Silke was able to push him to the fringes and his radar was a bit off with the chances he did get.
McGuigan came back the following spring a totally different player and after an Allstar year, he seems to have improved again this spring. The scores he kicked in Celtic Park against Dublin were a real indication, though it’s unlikely that Dessie Farrell will put Eoin Murchan on him again if the sides do meet again in the league final.
The biggest stick with which to beat Derry has become their reliance on the Slaughtneil man. Just how much truth is in that?
It depends how you look at it.
He has kicked 37 per cent of Derry’s scores in this year’s league, the highest percentage of any forward from the leading ten teams.
What’s also interesting is that the Oak Leafers’ second-top scorer is Conor McCluskey, whose three goals are his only scores.
Is that a strength or a weakness for Derry?
In terms of the number of different scorers each week, Derry are behind only Dublin and Mayo.
Derry have scored 11-80, have had 20 different scorers and are averaging just under eight different scorers per game.
What Mickey Harte and Gavin Devlin will be most pleased by is just how many scores they’ve got from their middle eight. Those figures have been kept down too by injuries to Conor Doherty and Gareth McKinless.
They’ve scored 11 goals, comfortably more than anyone else in the top flight, joint-second in Ireland only to Louth and level with Down.
With Conor McManus playing so little football, Monaghan are an outlier in having been largely without one of their two recognised shooters.
And of the other eight top teams, in terms of reliance whose gap between their top scorer and their second-top scorer is the biggest besides Derry?
Dublin.
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THE HIDDEN WINS FOR KEVIN McSTAY
THE general assessment of Mayo’s league campaign is that it’s been slightly underwhelming.
Barring the emergence of Fergal Boland as a scoring threat from half-forward, they’ve kind of just bobbed along quietly, doing enough to win the games they’ve needed to to stay safe, but losing in Omagh, Tralee and at home to Derry.
With Kevin McStay having openly stated that he didn’t want his side near another league final, he’ll have been looking for other things, and he might be happier than you’d think with what he’s found.
As Ryan O’Donoghue continues to develop, they’re having to be patient with Tommy Conroy as his long return from injury nears its end. Just being back playing after an injury like that is only half the battle but you could see a different player in summer.
Where Mayo have impressed is, like Dublin and Derry, in their spread of scorers. They, like Derry, have to listen to the trope that they’ve no forwards.
Yet they’ve had 22 different scorers, same as Dublin.
They’re averaging 8.3 scorers per game, second only to the Dubs, ahead of Derry.
Mayo have scored 6-88. To put that in context, Kerry have hit 7-88, and only Derry and Dublin have scored more than that in Division One.
All that while they’ve had to play most of the league without two of their punchiest men from deep, Paddy Durcan and David McBrien.
Nobody is saying that they have it all sussed but Mayo aren’t as far away as you keep hearing they are.
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KERRY’S DEADLY DUO
OF all the precious commodities there are, Kerry are so fortunate to have two of them in David Clifford and Sean O’Shea.
The Kenmare man played a good bit of the early part of the league out of full-forward while Clifford eased himself back in. It was nothing new for O’Shea, who has dipped in to the edge of the square throughout recent seasons. As the league has gone on, he’s spent less and less time there, the number 14 or 15 on his back a bit of a misnomer now.
But what the pair of them give Jack O’Connor is the ability to conjure scores out of very little.
Kerry are the third-top scorers in Division One.
Just 20 per cent of their scores have come from frees, the lowest ratio of any of the top ten teams.
They’ve conceded 1-15 from frees at the other end but have leaked six goals. They’ve moved out of the steadfast system of Tadhg Morley doubling-up with Jason Foley that made them so defensively sound in their All-Ireland winning run in 2022, and haven’t looked as solid since.
Galway had tried early on in that year’s final to stop Morley sitting but didn’t make any hay from it, while Dublin poked at the scab just enough to make it bleed in last year’s final.
But they will always have a chance in games when they have the two boyos up top.
Despite Clifford missing just over 100 of their 420 minutes so far, the pair have hit 2-29 from play out of 2-50 in total.
That compares favourably to Tyrone’s brilliant pair of Darragh Canavan and Darren McCurry, who have 2-21 from play so far.
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WHAT DO WE KNOW ABOUT THE TWO IN DIVISION TWO?
ARMAGH and Donegal were both heavily fancied to climb back into Division One and have done so with a degree of comfort.
They’re worth analysing in this study because both are considered very capable of going on a serious championship run.
They are more difficult to judge because they’re being judged against Division Two opposition, which has to be a caveat against it all.
But what have we learned so far?
Amid all the attention on Donegal following Jim McGuinness’ return to the hotseat, Kieran McGeeney’s men have gotten a lot right too.
Their comprehensive dismissal of Cavan last weekend to secure promotion was the most impressive either side has been since Donegal’s opening-round beating of Cork.
Donegal are averaging 7.8 scorers per game compared to Armagh’s 7.3, yet the Tír Chonaill men’s spread of 17 different scorers all season is the lowest of any of the top ten teams.
Armagh’s defence has been the tightest in Ireland during the league, yet to concede a goal after six games. Does that alter their thinking on the Ethan Rafferty experiment when he is fit to return?
Within that statistic, a caveat. 30 per cent of the scores they’ve conceded have been from frees, the highest percentage at the top table.
Yet in their six games to date, they’ve picked up just three yellow cards and no black cards, which is a sign of real progress in an area where they’ve fallen down in the past.
The team with the lowest percentage? Donegal, at just 17 per cent.
A low concession rate from frees can sometimes be a concern and indicate passiveness (Roscommon and Monaghan are two of the next three, for instance), but in Donegal’s case, they’ve only conceded 4-58 in total so it looks like more of a strength than a weakness.
What’s been notable in attack is that their key men are light on scores from play.
Patrick McBrearty has 1-7 from play out of 1-26 in total.
Conor Turbitt’s return of 2-22 includes just 1-6 from play.
Of each county’s top-scoring players, only Cillian Ó Curraoin of Galway has scored less from play, and bear in mind Armagh and Donegal are playing in the second tier.
Plenty of food for thought.
