Belfast has fallen by five places to 14th out of 52 UK cities in PwC’s latest Good Growth for Cities Index.
Despite the decline, it continues to rate highly among cities in the devolved administrations, coming in third behind Edinburgh and Cardiff, which are ranked 9th and 13th respectively in the overall Index.
The index ranks 51 of the UK’s largest cities (generally considered those with populations of at least 350,000 people), plus the London boroughs as a whole, based on the public’s assessment of 12 economic measures, including jobs, health, income, safety and skills, as well as work-life balance, housing, travel-to-work times, income equality, high street shops, environment and business startups.
Belfast’s fall comes despite the city performing above the UK average on key indicators including work-life balance and safety.
The city also scores well on its house price-to-earnings ratio, a factor that has seen the largest decline in scores across the rest of the UK, making Belfast an attractive place for homeownership compared to other cities in the index. However, it scores below average on income, health, new businesses, environment, and high streets.
Cities across the south west region lead the latest index, with Plymouth, Bristol, Swindon and Exeter all being among the highest performing cities.
Belfast is expected to experience modest economic growth in 2024 and 2025, with activity in the region projected to grow by 0.8% in 2024 and 1.6% in 2025 - short of the predicted UK average of 1% and 1.7% growth respectively.
Belfast has an above-average share of economic activity in the human health and social work activities industry. This sector has the fifth highest growth forecast for 2024 of the 15 sectors included in PwC’s analysis.
The city also has a much higher share of activity in the public administration, defence, and ‘other services’ sector than the UK average. The sector is also expected to be a high growth sector in 2024, contributing to Belfast’s economic growth.
But Belfast has a below-average share of activity in professional, scientific, and technical activities, which is expected to be another high growth industry in 2024.
This presents a significant opportunity for the city to grow. It also has a lower share of economic activity in the information and communication and education industries compared to the UK average. These industries are expected to grow by only 0.6% and 0.5% respectively in 2024.
Of the 52 cities that make up PwC’s Good Growth for Cities Index, Belfast is expected to have the 26th highest growth rate in 2024 and 30th in 2025.
The majority of economic activity in Belfast sits in human health and social work activities, wholesale and retail trade (repair of motor vehicles) and real estate activities industries. Compared to other cities in the UK, a higher proportion of economic activity falls within the public administration and defence industry.
Cat McCusker, regional market leader for PwC Northern Ireland, says: “While it’s disappointing to see Belfast fall slightly down the overall rankings, a closer look at performance across key economic indicators and the projected moderate economic growth shows where we have opportunities to improve.
“The city performed well in safety, work-life balance and the ratio of house prices to earnings. Housing affordability has worsened on average across the UK, so it is encouraging that it remains a strength for Belfast.
“Fully unlocking the potential for growth in Belfast and across Northern Ireland will require creativity and collaboration across all levels of government, public and private sectors to ensure that we can inject new life into our high streets, develop the next generation of highly skilled workers and create an economy where new businesses can thrive.”
