Figures used to support the development of new purpose built student accommodation (PBSA) schemes in Belfast may be years out of date, it has emerged.
Ulster University has told Irish News there are already enough student accommodation beds in place in the city to meet its current and future needs, while Queen’s University said it is currently re-evaluating its accommodation needs in response to a significant shift in the number of international students coming to the UK to study.
It follows a Planning Appeals Commission ruling last month, that overturned Belfast City Council’s decision to refuse permission for a new 795-unit scheme close to Royal Avenue.
In his report, the commissioner appeared to accept the developer’s claim that Queen’s University had estimated a 6,000 bed shortage in the city, while Ulster University was said to require 1,700 units to meet its demand.
However, it’s understood those figures may have been based on assessments carried out around four years ago.
Research carried out by the Irish News shows just over 7,500 new student accommodation units have been either been completed or granted planning permission in Belfast since 2021.
Some 2,871 units have been opened in those four years, with construction work under way on another 1,425.
Planning approval has been granted for a further 3,218 student beds in the city, with at least an additional 3,500 student units proposed across multiple developments.
Sources familiar with the student accommodation sector said the last assessment undertaken by Queen’s University was made ahead of the 2021/22 academic year.
At that time, it was projected that Queen’s alone would require an additional 2,500 beds by 2030, on top of its existing supply of around 3,500 bedrooms.
Unlike Ulster University, Queen’s develops and operates its own student accommodation.
The projection was made at a time when both domestic and international student numbers surged in the north as the post-pandemic restrictions were eased.
But the landscape has dramatically shifted for UK universities, with some reports suggesting visas for overseas students for the current academic year fell by around 30%, with post-graduate enrolment falling by 40%.
Some universities have already announced plans to cut hundreds of jobs in response to the reduction in the lucrative overseas market, with some forecasts anticipating as many as 10,000 redundancies across the UK due to budget restraints.
According to a recent BBC report, Queen’s University is seeking to cut around 270 jobs amid a deficit of more than £11m in 2024/25.
The university is now planning to open a new campus in India next year, with the falling number of international students, and the revenue they bring with them, believed to be the key driver.
Meanwhile, Queen’s is reviewing its future strategy to factor in the change in accommodation needs.
“In response to the unprecedented change to student numbers in the last 12 months due to the political landscape, we are currently reviewing projected future student numbers to align with our strategy,” said a spokesperson.
Despite the huge pipeline of new student accommodation in Belfast, Queen’s is still actively developing a new 16-storey tower on the Dublin Road next to Kainos, to house 459 units.
It’s understood to be demand-driven, and a bid to avoid resorting to leasing rooms from private operators.
In recent years, Queen’s signed up for virtually all rooms at Student Roost’s John Bell House and Swanston House facilities in Belfast city centre for a period of two years to meet their needs.
The affordability and lease conditions of the Queen’s-owned accommodation also makes it more attractive for students in a market increasingly populated by expensive privately developed units with longer leases.
Alongside Dublin Road, QUB has acquired a city centre site on Brunswick Street and the site of the former El Divino nightclub on Laganbank Road, which already has planning approval for 159 apartments.
It’s understood the scheme may be developed in the future for post-graduate students.
While Queen’s has a direct input into the development of student accommodation, the situation in Belfast city centre is primarily market-led.
It’s thought the 1,700 bed figure cited in the recent PAC report has baffled some at Ulster University.
“The University’s assessment is that there are sufficient beds for our current and future student accommodation needs already in place in Belfast,” said a spokesperson.
The new student residential schemes popping up around Ulster University’s new York Street campus include the 774-unit Nelson Place development, the largest PBSA block ever built in the north.
Around the corner, cranes have gone up at 140 Donegall Street, where 724 units are under construction.
Even larger city centre schemes have been green-lit in recent months, including Mandeville Developments’ 795 units on Library Street and MRP’s 821-bed scheme on Castle Street.
Dublin investor Elkstone is pushing for 1,765 units across two schemes on Corporation Street and Murray’s Exchange, while Derry developer South Bank Square is demolishing Fanum House on Great Victoria Street for a 594-unit PBSA scheme.
The influx in new market entries could eventually provide for more competitive pricing among the privately operated PBSA schemes.
But it could also see investors and operators apply pressure on Belfast City Council to relax the current guidelines, which restrict short-let use of city centre rooms over the summer months in order to protect the hotel sector.