It’s not often that Northern Ireland finds itself at the top of the UK league tables, other than perhaps the recent GCSE results, yet it is great to see the local economy operating on a high.
Across the UK-wide economic environment, the green shoots of growth have proven somewhat elusive.
Yet many of the key indicators for NI’s economic performance – employee job growth, median monthly pay, unemployment rate – are currently tracking beyond expectations.
To the extent that Ulster University’s Economic Policy Centre recently revised its 2024 growth forecast from 0.8% to 1.4%, which puts Northern Ireland on track to outpace the rest of the UK for the remainder of the year.
Falling inflation and economic resilience were behind the revision, which no doubt paints a positive near-term picture of NI’s economic outlook.
Add to this the record low unemployment rate of 2% and it could be argued that the local economy here is punching above its weight, aided by a services sector that has notched 2.9% higher output compared to this same period last year.
Of course, such optimism does not come without a degree of caution.
Not only in the fact that Northern Ireland still has some catching up to do with respect to wealth distribution within our society, but also how NI still has the lowest disposable income of any UK region.
There is still positivity and resolve to be drawn from this better-than-expected economic performance.
A post-pandemic defiance that ought to be fuel for the forge, and a timely reminder of NI’s business credentials for overseas investment.
After all, Northern Ireland is uniquely poised with an unparalleled opportunity: access to both the GB and EU markets.
A buoyant GB economy is, of course, good for Northern Ireland, owing to the interconnectedness of our economies.
It is important that Northern Ireland makes the most of the opportunity to leverage both markets.
We have seen the adverse impact that closing off a key market can have, not least within the IMF’s July report which pinpointed Brexit as the factor that has ‘drained life out of the GB economy’.
Indeed, within a recent financial confidence survey, a leading accountancy body here found 87% of members view dual-market access as Northern Ireland’s biggest growth opportunity over the next decade.
Across the board, signs of a strong rebound during the first six months of 2024 suggest the economies both here and across the water are beginning to establish a more even and stable footing, aided by the welcome addition of easing inflationary pressures.
As we go about our day-to-day, it’s perhaps easy to give this economic data short shrift, but the average consumer will have no doubt felt its ripple effect. For it is these same numbers that impact our weekly shopping bill, our public services, work opportunities and overall quality of life.
This makes news of Northern Ireland’s resilient economic performance all the more welcome.
In fact, figures released from Ulster University in the summer show consumer services such as retail and hospitality are starting to see the embers of recovery, following a prolonged period of high inflation.
All this culminates in a cautiously optimistic outlook for the wider UK economy and Northern Ireland in the months ahead.
No doubt there will be more headwinds to come, and the Stormont in-tray hasn’t been left wanting for to-do items in the six months since restoration, but from a purely business perspective, a sense of resolve ought to be drawn from NI’s powering economy which seems poised to spring into fall.
Claire Aiken is managing director at Aiken PR
