The average house price in Northern Ireland stands at £211,225 - its highest since the second quarter of 2008, just ahead of one of the UK’s most catastrophic property crashes.
And the 3,304 transactions representing a 10% increase from the previous quarter and is the highest level of market activity since early 2022.
That’s according to Ulster University’s closely-watched quarterly house price index for April to June, produced in partnership with the NI Housing Executive and Progressive Building Society.
Six out of the 11 local council areas showed price increases over the quarter, with the largest in Derry and Strabane, where average house prices were up 7.4% to an average £186,968.
This was followed by Mid and East Antrim (up 6.6% to £192,662), with more nominal price growth observed in Armagh City, Banbridge and Craigavon (up 3.5% to £189,842), Ards and North Down (up 2.9% to £248,267) and Belfast (up 1.8% to £196,414).
In terms of price change declines, the largest price decrease was observed in Lisburn and Castlereagh (down 5.8% to £237,462) followed by Newry, Mourne and Down (down 4.3% to £225,880), with smaller decreases notable in Fermanagh and Omagh and MidUlster of 3.7% and 3.4% respectively.
The overall quarterly rise was 2.5%, and represents an annual increase of 2.6%.
Despite rising prices, the market structure remains more balanced than the 2008 housing bubble, whereby 50% of properties sold for more than £200,000, compared to 38% at present.
New build properties made up 14% of transactions in quarter two, higher than most recent reports, but it remains below the long-term trend of 20-25%.
The average new build price was £265,299, significantly higher than the overall market average.
By property type, detached houses showed the most significant price growth, with an annual increase of 5% and a quarterly rise of 3.6%, recording an average price of £314,394.
Prices for terrace and townhouses increased by 1.9% quarterly and 5% annually, with an average price of £144,138 while semi-detached homes saw minimal quarterly growth of 0.1% and a slight annual decline of 0.6%, maintaining an average price of £193,974.
Apartment prices rose by 2.9% quarterly but faced an annual decrease of 1.2%, averaging £156,300.
Dr Michael McCord, leader researcher from Ulster University, said: “Quarter two of 2024 has seen increasing momentum within the housing market as interest rates have stabilised, inflation eased to target levels, and an increasing competitive borrowing environment evident as lenders continue to cut their rates.
“This more benign macro-economic setting has seen heightened consumer confidence within the housing market depicted by elevated transaction levels, listings, and continued house price growth evident throughout the quarter.
“This house price growth looks to continue over the remainder of 2024 as supply constraints and a reduction in new build activity continues to impact on market activity.”
Ursula McAnulty, Head of Research at the NI Housing Executive, which commissions the analysis, added: “This report indicates continuing stability within the local housing market, with a modest annual weighted house price growth of 2.5%, bringing the average price of a home in Northern Ireland to over £211,000.
“There are signals that this steady house price growth will continue, with the highest number of transactions since early 2022. Over 60% of agents expected continued house price growth moving into the second half of 2024 and over 70% report improved consumer confidence in their market area.
“But once again, the continuing supply constraints was flagged by agents and, coupled with the ongoing demand, all point to steady upward growth of house prices.”
Michael Boyd, chief executive of Progressive Building Society, said: “A resumption of the uptrend for the Northern Ireland housing market in the second quarter of the year reflects the steady slide in inflation and the still-tight supply and demand picture.
“Growing expectation that the Bank of England will cut interest rates in the coming months has already brought high street rates lower, although recent murmurings from the central bank suggest any further cutting of rates will be measured, particularly in the immediate future.
“In the meantime, a lack of new stock – either new build or for resale – coming on to the market looks likely to limit any downside.”
