A leading economist has claimed the British government would incur a £200m “loss” if it agrees to bankroll the building of Casement Park ahead of Euro 2028.
Dr Esmond Birnie, senior economist at Ulster University’s Business School, concludes that the project would bring “limited forecast economic gains” and advocates a stadium on a more modest scale but one unsuitable for hosting an international soccer tournament.
In a paper circulated on Wednesday, he said the forecasted building costs for the stadium had already increased from around £70m to more than £300m, and that further inflation is possible “given uncertainty about global energy and commodity prices”.
“Northern Ireland has a woeful record in terms of failing to keep big infrastructure projects within budget,” he said.
“It would be a very dangerous position from a cost control point of view if the UK government committed to pay whatever it took to get the building work over the line by 2027.”
The former Ulster Unionist MLA, who later served as a special adviser to the then employment and learning minister Reg Empey, said an Ulster GAA-commissioned report by consultants Grant Thornton concluded that hosting five games in the quadrennial football tournament could be worth more than £106m to the economy.
However, he notes that the report “does not appear to be in the public domain”, meaning “it is not possible to assess its assumptions”. He goes onto conduct his own “assessment of the monetary benefits of Casement for the Euros”.
In what he terms is an “optimistic scenario”, in which 90% of those attending the five matches travel from outside Ireland and spend £311 each day during their five-day stay, additional spending would be in the region of £42m. In his “pessimistic scenario”, whereby 60% of match attendees are ‘outsiders’ spending £108 over four days, then additional spending falls to £7.8m.
The economist also argues that as the Euros takes place at a time when Belfast’s hotels are already busy, there’s a “very real danger” of what he terms ‘normal’ tourism being diverted away.
Elsewhere, he argues that the rebuilt Casement Park’s long-term 30,000 capacity would “be small by UK and international terms” as a major concert venue, though the capacity of the converted pitch space is overlooked.
Mr Birnie is also sceptical about the value of television coverage of the Euros in terms of attracting tourists in the future.
He concludes that there is an “equity argument” that the GAA should receive a subsidy in line with what has already given to rugby and football, which would enable the development of a smaller stadium unsuited for the Euros.
Given the “scale of the public funding challenges” and “limited forecast economic gains”, he argue that “the more modest approach seems appropriate”.
Citing the British government’s recent refusal to provide a £200m loan guarantee to Harland and Wolff on the grounds that it was a substantial risk to the taxpayer, the Ulster University economist says that rather than a risk, public money spent on Casement Park would represent an “actual loss of about £200m”.
