A Donald Trump victory in the US Presidential election could be ‘destabilising’ if he decides to enter a ‘tariff war’ with the EU which Ireland could get caught in the middle of, a US-Ireland expert had said.
During the last Trump administration, the then President imposed tariffs of 25% on steel and 10% on aluminum coming from the EU into the US in 2018.
Liam Kennedy, Director of the Clinton Institute for American Studies at University College Dublin, says a Trump victory could be “destabilising” due to his unpredictability.
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“We don’t know if he’s going to repeat things he did before,” he said.
“But if he does, it means that you’re probably going to have a very uneasy relationship between the EU and Trump – and Ireland, of course, can get caught in the middle of that.
“So, what will that mean? It might mean there’s a tariff war – that’s very possible.”
The former President has been vocal in his intention to raise tariffs against China of up to 60% and 10% on other countries.
“If that’s true, well, that’ll hit Ireland too – that could be meaningful, but let’s wait and see.”
“There was a lot of hot air last time that did not happen,” he added.
Despite this, Mr Kennedy is confident that diplomacy between the US and Ireland would not be impacted under a Trump administration.
“I don’t really expect or anticipate that Ireland’s going to especially suffer in this relationship if Trump wins,” he said.
“I think that Ireland has shown itself to be pretty nimble in this transatlantic space and I think that they can continue to do that.”
“The diplomats in Washington went out and did very good groundwork in building relationships with Republicans.”
“There’s many in this country who would say you should hold your nose about dealing with these people, but their job is to do that – they did it very well last time and I think they can do it again,” he added.
If Kamala Harris were to succeed Joe Biden as President, the relationship is likely to be mostly unchanged politically.
“She has sat in on meetings that are policy related; she has a pretty good take, I think, on what’s been going on with Northern Ireland,” he said.
“Biden did step up to take a role in those Brexit discussions, where he was prepared to stymie British ambitions vis-à-vis the Good Friday Agreement.
“I think a lot of people think that’s his Irishness coming out, but in many ways it’s not; it’s really more his American leadership coming out because the Good Friday Agreement is something that is understood as bipartisan in the United States.
“So, for the same reason, I would entirely expect Harris to protect it as well,” he added.
Economically, a Harris administration looks set to raise corporation tax to 28%, which “could be” more beneficial for Ireland than a Trump White House, which would cut the rate to 15% and compete with Ireland.
However, Mr Kennedy adds that Harris is unlikely to “turn back the clock” on Biden’s economic policy.
“Despite the rhetoric, Biden kind of picked up some elements of Trump’s ‘America First’ foreign policy,” he said.
“There are degrees of protectionism now going on with the United States in that regard, especially as they build their green energy. They’re happy to sort of protect themselves in doing that.
“Harris will not change that; so, we’re moving into a new world in a sense,” he added.
