The concept of a battleground constituency, or a ‘swing state’ if you’re still in US election mindset, might not be as exciting in a proportional representation election like the Republic’s.
However, that doesn’t mean there won’t be electoral drama in some constituencies.
The battlegrounds in this month’s upcoming election might not be ‘kingmakers’ in the same sense as Pennsylvania or North Carolina but they will still be important in dictating the makeup of government.
More: Mary Lou and The Monk: the battle for Dublin Central
Here’s a look at some key constituencies to watch out for in this month’s general election.
Dublin Central
Dublin Central is set to be one of this election’s most interesting battles.
This four-seat constituency has had representation from Sinn Féin President Mary Lou McDonald and current Minister for Public Expenditure Paschal Donohoe since 2011.
It was also the historic electoral home of former Taoiseach Bertie Ahern from 1981 until his retirement in 2011.
Ms McDonald and Fine Gael’s Mr Donohoe are likely to hold on to their seats here, but the entry of former MEP Clare Daly into the race makes it a little trickier for the remaining incumbents from the Greens and Social Democrats.
The constituency also has the wildcard addition of Gerry ‘The Monk’ Hutch – the results for Dublin Central will be ones to watch.
Wicklow
Taoiseach Simon Harris’ home constituency is another one to keep an eye on at the upcoming election.
While the Taoiseach’s seat is sure to be safe, the others are not as certain given the constituency’s downsizing from five to four seats.
The Taoiseach will be hoping to ride the wave of good polling numbers for his party and bring running mate Edward Timmons alongside him to Leinster House.
However, this could be a struggle given former Fine Gael councillor Shay Cullen is running as an independent after not receiving the second party nomination.
Elsewhere, Minister for Health Stephen Donnelly (Fianna Fáil) will be hoping to hold onto his seat in the battle against fellow incumbents from Sinn Féin, the Greens and Social Democrats.
Cork South-Central
Tánaiste Micheál Martin has held a seat here since 1989 in this key battleground area which is often considered a bellwether constituency – results here tend to reflect the national picture.
The Tánaiste is expected to safely hold onto his seat and is hoping to bring along his Fianna Fáil running mate, Seamus McGrath, who is replacing his brother Michael as he takes up a post as an EU Commissioner.
Back in 2020, another eventual government minister was elected here in Fine Gael’s Simon Coveney – his decision to retire will be a big loss for the party, however they will be hoping to hold onto their seat with some high-profile candidates including Senator Jerry Buttimer.
Sinn Féin will also be ones to watch in Cork South-Central after Donnchadh Ó Laoghaire comfortably topped the poll in 2020.
Now joined by a running mate, it’s unlikely they will bring home two TD’s here given recent polling but will likely hold on to Ó Laoghaire’s seat.
Independents and Social Democrats could put up a fight for Labour’s seat, which has usually had strong support in the area.
