Almost two-thirds of DUP supporters believe the deal Sir Jeffrey Donaldson secured from the British government justified returning to Stormont, a new poll has found.
January’s Safeguarding the Union command paper paved the way for the DUP to end its two-year boycott of the institutions.
The party withdrew from the executive in February 2022 to highlight its concerns around the Northern Ireland Protocol.
The deal agreed between the British government included a series of measures aimed at ensuring the “smooth flow of goods” within the UK internal market, alongside commitments on Northern Ireland’s constitutional status.
Sir Jeffrey, who claimed the agreement effectively removed the Irish Sea border, won what he termed a “decisive” mandate to go back into the power-sharing government at a meeting of the party’s executive last month.
However, critics argue that the deal did not meet the DUP’s seven tests, which were set out in the party’s 2022 assembly election manifesto.
The party said it would judge any new trade arrangements against the tests to “determine whether they respect NI’s position as part of the UK”.
The latest Irish News-University of Liverpool survey suggests that a clear majority of DUP supporters back the leader’s decision.
Asked if the Safeguarding the Union command paper secured sufficient concessions for the DUP to re-enter Stormont, almost two-thirds (62.8%) of respondents who vote for the DUP agreed, with just 8.5% disagreeing.
The figure for the DUP was higher than the Ulster Unionists, whose policy on the protocol is regarded as less hardline. Some 55% of UUP voters felt the command paper’s contents warranted the restoration of power-sharing, while only 7% disagreed.
Supporters of the TUV, regarded as the most strident on the post-Brexit trade arrangements, were strongest in their belief that Sir Jeffrey should have stayed out of Stormont, with 42.8% believing he had not gained sufficient concessions. Less than one-third of TUV voters (28.5%) felt the deal delivered enough for the DUP to end its boycott.
Professor Peter Shirlow, director of the Institute of Irish Studies at the University of Liverpool, said it was predicted the DUP returning to Stormont would lead to defections but none had materialised to date.
“It seems that at this stage, Sir Jeffrey Donaldson has maintained his base and in general received significant approval from DUP voters,” he said.
“It is really clear that DUP voters admire the intent and purpose of the command paper but some defer opinion on aspects such as the movement of goods – evidently, if the command paper achieves what it claims, it will then provide capacity for the DUP to re-build after the negative impact of Brexit upon their vote.”
It seems that at this stage, Sir Jeffrey Donaldson has maintained his base and in general received significant approval from DUP voters
— Prof Peter Shirlow
Prof Shirlow said the DUP leader had “walked a tightrope and proven that he could deliver a deal that was popular among his base”.
“One wonders now what his critics will do when unionists sense an achievement and leadership that may not have met the seven tests, but removed aspects of the Windsor Framework that were problematic,” he said.
:: The survey is based on 1206 respondents and was carried out by SMR Belfast between February 11-28. The margin of error is -/+ 3.1%.
