There was much reflection among DUP members at Saturday’s conference. There was a sense that change is in the air – though it’s not yet tangible enough to cause disillusionment or disagreement.
In the year that has passed since the last conference there has been great upheaval within the DUP ranks.
There was yet another leadership change – the fourth since 2021 – and while the circumstances of Sir Jeffrey Donaldson’s resignation had nothing to do with politics, it had major ramifications for the party.
July’s general election saw the DUP struggle in a manner it is unaccustomed to. The party’s popularity has been slowly slipping since the height of its power under Peter Robinson but the symbolism and scale of the losses in the Westminster election were huge – and it could’ve easily been worse still.
For some within the party, Donaldson is the scapegoat for the poor showing at the polls but that is to ignore other, arguably more strategically uncomfortable, factors. The party isn’t so much at a crossroads, as heading up a cul-de-sac.
A timely piece from former special adviser Lee Reynolds published last week was an obvious talking point at the conference though there was a tendency to play down his intervention among those deemed culpable for the sorry state of affairs.
The one-time Belfast councillor, who didn’t attend Saturday’s conference, eats and sleeps unionism. His observations won’t be universally welcomed within the party, especially by those implicitly criticised, but his considered assessment carries weight.
Among his recommendations for ensuring the DUP doesn’t take the same route as the Ulster Unionists, Mr Reynolds’ former party, there’s structural reform, succession planning and an image rebrand that may even include a change of name.
Yet it can be argued that the analysis puts too much emphasis on internal matters, at the expense of examining broader societal transformation.
The DUP became the dominant force in northern politics as the peace process bedded in. The unionist electorate still wasn’t convinced that republicans were sincere in their desire for peace. Ian Paisley and Peter Robinson exploited this suspicion but it had limited shelf-life. There were fewer and fewer opportunities to invoke the IRA bogeyman.
The EU referendum was in many ways a bookend to this era, as the focus subsequently shifted to the DUP’s often blinkered support for Brexit. Many within the party’s base questioned its commitment to always ‘do the right thing for Northern Ireland’, while some within what always was a loose coalition based on what it is not, rather than what it is, felt the party was being too soft. It reflects a fracturing of the pro-union population against a backdrop of transforming social and constitutional dynamics.
The difficultly in reading the unionist room is perhaps best illustrated by the electoral fortunes of Paul Girvan and Ian Paisley, unseated in neighbouring constituencies by the ‘moderate’ Robin Swann and the ‘extreme’ Jim Allister, respectively, with the former leader’s Lagan Valley seat falling to Alliance.
Gavin Robinson, the most liberal DUP leader to date, acknowledges in his conference notes that a “renewal process” is required along with “fresh ideas and fresh thinking” - echoes of Doug Beattie and Mike Nesbitt. The conference saw efforts to signal that a transformation of sorts was underway – young elected representatives were put to the fore rather than the old guard, while the discussion panels focused on bread and butter issues rather than identity politics.
Seemingly there’s widespread support at present for the affable East Belfast MP but you wonder how long that goodwill can last as he attempts to modernise and reorient the traditionally conservative DUP.
