Dublin Airport has warned that its 32 million passenger cap will be exceeded this year. Just last month, the airport forecast that passenger numbers in 2024 will be closer to 33 million, despite efforts to dampen airline demand.
More: Ryanair flights to European destinations cut from today
Around 3.46 million passengers passed through the airport in August alone, making it the busiest month ever in Dublin Airport’s 84-year history.
And that trend of increasing passenger numbers is set to continue.
What is the airline passenger cap?
The strict cap of 32 million was put in place by Fingal County Council in 2007 as part of a condition in allowing the airport operators, the daa, to build a second terminal.
The concerns at the time centred on the impact of the surrounding roads.
The cap has now been reached and the daa recently revealed it now expects it to be breached by up to a million passengers this year.
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What is being done to reduce passenger numbers?
The daa says it has made extensive efforts to reduce passenger numbers in a bid to comply with planning, including removing airline incentives at Dublin Airport and the launch by Cork Airport of a new scheme to encourage airlines to move seat capacity from Dublin to Cork.
But the daa CEO Kenny Jacobs has said it is “in no one’s interest” to curtail tourism and investment.
“While our actions to dampen airline demand have reduced passenger numbers by approximately 650,000, we do not control the slot process. We now forecast that passenger numbers will exceed 32 million and will be closer to 33 million in 2024.
“It is in no one’s interests to curtail tourism and investment at a time when so much public and private money is being spent to do the complete opposite.
“We are a small, open, island economy on the edge of Europe that has always punched above our weight but we need more joined-up thinking in the development of critical infrastructure.”
The aviation regulator, the Irish Aviation Authority (IAA), which is responsible for allocating take-off and landing slots at the airport, has also faced criticism for allowing the breach to happen as it did not start to limit 2024 flights early enough.
The IAA recently proposed limiting airlines at Dublin Airport to 25.2 million seats next summer to ensure they do not exceed the overall 32 million limit.
The IAA winter slot changes will also see a reduction in the number of seats that airlines flying into Dublin Airport can offer to passengers between November and March.
Are there any plans for Dublin Airport to allow an increase in passenger numbers?
The daa has applied to Fingal County Council (FCC) to increase the current terminals passenger cap.
The infrastructure application for planning permission would, if approved, enable it to grow passenger numbers to 40 million a year. However, that is expected to take some time to get a decision on.
A separate application is also to be lodged that would seek to lift the cap only, without the additional infrastructure.
But that is also likely to take some time to be considered by planners.
It also remains unclear what the result will be if the current passenger cap is breached or what action will be taken by Fingal County Council.
How have the airlines reacted?
Some airlines operating at Dublin have decided to reduce the scale of their operations because of the uncertainty with the 32 million terminals passenger cap, but there has been much criticism.
Ryanair has been heavily critical, claiming it has blocked the airline’s growth.
In August, the budget airline announced it had added an extra 50,000 winter seats on flights between Belfast International Airport and London Stansted due to the capacity issues in Dublin.
Ryanair chief executive Michael O’Leary also said there will be an “inevitable” rise for summer holidays next year if the cap is not lifted.
“I think the only thing that will really act as a spur is when the crisis blows up this Christmas, when the airlines offer 250,000 less seats to Dublin this Christmas.
“When airfares exceed 500 euros one way, when 50,000 Dubliners are coming home to visit friends and family via Belfast, then finally we’ll probably get something done.”
On October 1, Ryanair flights from Dublin airport to European destinations such as Spain, France and Germany were cut amid the controversial annual passenger cap.
The budget airline has also stopped some flights to Lithuania and Romania.
Aer Lingus, which is also another major airline that uses Dublin Airport, has also said it was examining the impact of the passenger cap.
It told The Irish Times that it is “continuing to assess the impact of the IAA’s draft decision reducing capacity for summer 2025″ adding that it would take part in a consultation on the proposal.
