THE entry of former Irish senator, Ian Marshall to the race in West Tyrone could prove decisive in the outcome of the May 5 poll for the constituency.
An erstwhile president of the Ulster Farmers’ Union, the Co Armagh man joined the Ulster Unionist Party following the loss of his seat in Seanad Éireann.
His nomination by the party leadership to contest West Tyrone has proved anything but easy.
Former Derry and Strabane councillor, Andy McKane was widely tipped to run. His rejection by the leadership led to his resignation from the UUP and widespread criticism from within the constituency party.
That unrest could possibly lead to a lacklustre campaign by a local membership, which is not completely behind its candidate and this could influence unionist chances of taking a second seat.
Last time out, the DUP topped the poll with 1,676 votes over quota for Thomas Buchannan on the first count.
In normal circumstances that surplus would be expected to transfer to other unionist candidates. However, if the UUP vote is not solidly behind Mr Marshall, those transfers might have little impact on the final outcome.
Sinn Féin managed their vote well in 2017, returning Barry McElduff and Michaela Boyle just over quota on the first count with Declan McAleer taking the final seat under quota on the fifth count.
If Sinn Féin is to emerge as the largest party after the election as polls predict, it must retain all three seats.
Mr McElduff (elected MP later in 2017) was initially replaced by Catherine Kelly, who was in turn replaced by current incumbent, Nicola Brogan.
Ms Boyle (elected to Derry and Strabane council in 2019) was replaced by former mayor of Derry and Strabane, Maoliosa McHugh from Castlederg.
The co-options mean the party is fielding two candidates in Mr McHugh and Ms Brogan who have not contested an assembly election before.
In 2017, the SDLP’s Daniel McCrossan united the Strabane and Omagh ends of the constituency to take a seat. It is likely that McCrossan will hold his seat, given his high profile in the last five years.
Alliance is once again running Stephen Donnelly who failed to be elected in 2017.
The Alliance vote held at around 2.5 per cent in both the 2017 Assembly and Westminster elections.
However, Mr Donnelly made a major breakthrough in the local government contest in 2019 when he became the first Alliance councillor elected in Omagh in 22 years.
In the 2019 Westminster election, he saw his vote increase by more than six per cent and will enter next week’s contest in confident mood.
As in other constituencies, the fight for the final seat will come down to lower-value transfers.
With a united team behind the Ulster Unionist candidate, Mr Marshall would have been expected to put up a strong challenge to Sinn Féin.
However, it’s not clear if he has the full support of his party machine. That could open the way for a number of other candidates, including Alliance’s Mr Donnelly and the TUV’s Charlie Chittick.
West Tyrone voters have shown in the past that they were not afraid to break from traditional nationalist-republican-unionist voting patterns.
In 1998, local GP, Dr Kieran Deeney upset the political status quo when he took an SDLP seat, campaigning on the single retain Omagh hospital issue.
That could give hope for other candidates on May 5.
As well as the wider issues of cost-of-living increases, more local concerns reported by candidates include continuing delays on the duelling of the A5 Derry to Ballygawley Road and the Noah Donohoe case.
With the teenager’s mother, Fiona coming from Strabane, people in West Tyrone consider the 14-year-old's death as a local issue, according to one candidate.
Another candidate said access to affordable childcare was also an issue, while healthcare has also proved a hot concern, in particular phone access to GPs and waiting lists.
While it is likely some of the sitting assembly members will be returned, the absence of more familiar faces in next week’s race makes West Tyrone particularly hard to call.
Candidates
Trevor Clarke - TUV
Tom Buchanan - DUP
Ian Marshall - UUP
Stephen Donnelly - Alliance
Susan Glass - Green
Carol Gallagher - PBPA
Amy Ferguson - Socialist Party
Paul Gags Gallagher -Ind
Barry Brown - Ind
Daniel McCrossan - SDLP
Nicola Brogan - SF
Declan McAleer - SF
Maoliosa McHugh - SF
James Hope - Aontú
