The past year has been something of a rollercoaster ride for Sinn Féin, with contrasting fortunes on either side of the border.
In the north, it achieved the electoral hattrick, emerging as the largest regional party at Westminster - albeit in abstentia – having already topped the Stormont and local government polls successively in previous years.
The ending of the DUP’s boycott of the institutions saw Michelle O’Neill belatedly installed as first minister, a watershed moment that symbolised the end of unionist domination in the north.
The first eight months of the Sinn Féin deputy leader’s tenure have been a mixed bag. Relations in the executive are positive and the talk is of unprecedented collaboration between ministers.
However, there is a sense that difficult decisions are being avoided and that as a result the crisis in public services is deepening. A lack of funding is cited as the main impediment to tackling mounting problems, the current stand-off with the British government providing limited cover for inaction.
On past evidence, it’s a situation that is unlikely to damage Sinn Féin electorally, with general disillusionment with devolution being the more probable outcome.
In the south, voters are more fickle, as illustrated by how the party has fared over the past 12 months.
At last year’s ard fheis, with Sinn Féin riding high in the polls, there was an expectation the party would be part of the Republic’s next government, even leading it.
But circumstances have transformed its fortunes in a manner that has surprised insiders and observers alike.
Two major curveballs – the rise of immigration as an issue and the surprise resignation of Leo Varadkar as taoiseach – have shifted the dynamics. Sinn Féin has been seen as inconsistent on immigration and seemingly managed to alienate potential voters on both sides of the debate.
Meanwhile, Simon Harris has been something of an understated revelation, reinvigorating Fine Gael and defying the expectation that a party in power for 14 years should be losing ground.
June’s European and local government elections saw Sinn Féin make what leader Mary Lou McDonald concedes were “modest” gains.
A Dáil election is due in the coming months, weeks even, but the party is languishing in the polls, its support at times close to half of what it was at its peak. The party’s current standing in the polls – around 20% - suggests it may even lose some of its 35 Dáil seats.
The weekend ard fheis was seen as crucial in efforts to reverse the recent slump, as well as lifting morale. It’s been argued that if Sinn Féin is to revive its fortunes ahead of the election, it needs to change its message, rather than merely repeating the message about change. The party has launched seven policy papers since June’s election but with no obvious traction among voters.
Meanwhile, the immigration issue was conspicuously absent from the motions before the ard fheis, while housing – the matter on which Sinn Féin is strongest in the south – was to the fore, as was the talk of Irish unity.
Yet those hoping to hear something new, a fresh idea that could capture the electorate’s imagination, were left disappointed.
There is undoubtedly public disquiet in the Republic around pressure on public services, unprecedented levels of immigration, and an acute undersupply of housing but also a growing scepticism about whether Sinn Féin has the answers.
There may be greater opportunities to damage its rivals once campaigning proper begins and the Sinn Féin machine gets up a head of steam. For the meantime, however, it looks like the party has yet the find the big idea that will win the election.
