The Stormont assembly is expected to give majority backing to the continuation of the post-Brexit trading arrangements when MLAs vote before the end of the year.
Among those supporting the Irish Sea border will be People Before Profit’s Gerry Carroll, who in 2016 campaigned for the UK to leave the EU.
However, support for articles 5-10 of the Windsor Framework is unlikely to be cross-community, therefore triggering a British government review of the regulations that keep the north in the EU single market.
Secretary of State Hilary Benn set in train the so-called democratic consent mechanism on Thursday when he wrote to the first and deputy first ministers and assembly speaker confirming that the assembly must vote on the issue before the end of the year.
The Irish News understands that Tuesday December 17 has been earmarked for the assembly vote to take place if a date is not agreed beforehand.
The first and deputy first ministers have until the end of the month to table the necessary motion. If the Stormont leaders fail to table the motion, that responsibility will fall to any member of the assembly before the speaker must intervene.
The mandatory vote formed part of the 2019 EU-UK withdrawal agreement, and in a departure from the established Stormont system, the motion does not require cross-community support.
If it receives cross-community support there will be no further vote for eight years. A simple majority without cross-community support means a vote in four years’ time and a review by the British government of the current arrangements, whereas defeat would see the protocol disapplied before 2028.
Some 52 MLAs from Sinn Féin, Alliance and SDLP are expected to vote in favour of retaining the current trading arrangements, alongside Mr Carroll, the sole People Before Profit representative in the assembly.
All unionists, including independent Claire Sugden, will vote against the Irish Sea border but in the absence of assembly speaker Edwin Poots, they will collectively secure 36 votes.
The overall outcome is expected to be roughly 60% in favour, 40% against.
Mr Carroll told The Irish News that he would be supporting the status quo “notwithstanding the EU’s loyal backing of Israeli plans to destroy as much of Palestinian infrastructure, and life as possible”.
“People Before Profit will oppose any attempts, by unionists in particular, to try and derail, undermine or play games with trade deals that were put in place after the vote to leave the European Union,” the West Belfast MLA said.
Ms Sugden said voting against the protocol would “enable a closer opportunity to review it again”.
“It unsettles me that we don’t have democratic representation,” she said.
“This vote is the only say we get, so I understand if it’s not supported then it’ll happen again sooner rather than later and I don’t see anything wrong with that.”
DUP leader Gavin Robinson confirmed the party’s MLAs would vote against the motion.
“As a consequence of the failures and folly of then prime minister Boris Johnson, the assembly vote has been deliberately designed to drive a coach and horses through the cross-community consent principle which has been at the very heart of all political progress in Northern Ireland,” he said.
Alliance deputy leader Eóin Tennyson said that it was vital that the north’s dual market access is protected.
“Continuation of the Windsor Framework is essential to uphold our dual market access, protect the Good Friday Agreement and respect international agreements,” he said.
The Labour administration is in the meantime seeking a sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) agreement with the EU, which would ease checks on goods being traded across the Irish Sea.
The deal, which is expected to take at least a year to finalise, would require the entire UK to align with EU rules on food and agriculture and to accept a role for the European Court of Justice.
