SINN Féin were favourites to secure second place in the Republic’s general election on Sunday night, but with a Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil coalition still remaining the most likely next government.
By around 7pm, 102 of the 174 seats had been filled with Fianna Fáil on 27 with a first preference share of 21.9%, Fine Gael on 24 seats and 20.8% first preferences and Sinn Féin on 24 seats and 19%.
Labour and the Social Democrats both had six seats while Independent Ireland had three.
People Before Profit and Aontú had one, with nine seats for independent candidates.
Fianna Fáil are predicted to take the most seats, with party leader Micheál Martin indicating he was open to another partnership with Fine Gael.
Both parties have previously ruled out any form of coalition with Sinn Féin.
The biggest talking point turned out to be the sideshow of the alleged Dublin gangland boss Gerry ‘The Monk’ Hutch running for office in Dublin Central.
Turning up to the Dublin count centre on Sunday afternoon to a media frenzy, he lost out to Labour’s Marie Sherlock but hinted he intended to run again.
“There’s never a guard (member of the Garda) around when you need one,” he said of the media scrum.
Asked why he thought so many people had voted for him, he replied: “Because they are looking for change and if I got elected I would give them the change that they want. I would do what they want.”
While Sinn Féin’s vote share of 19.5% was an improvement from the local elections in June, it was still well below the 24.5% result which topped the poll in the 2020 general election.
The final breakdown of first preferences also flips the result of Friday night’s exit poll, which suggested Sinn Fein was in front on 21.1%, with Fine Gael on 21% and Fianna Fáil on 19.5%.
While giving a good gauge of the parties’ expected returns, first preference shares do not necessarily correlate to seats won, with those depending on the complex and often unpredictable way transfers are allocated.
Fianna Fáil nevertheless appears on track to significantly increase its seat lead over Fine Gael compared with the last election when the parties were much closer.
The outcome in 2020 saw the two parties enter a coalition on the basis that the position of Taoiseach would be exchanged midway through the term.
Mr Martin said there is “very little point” in discussing government formation until seats are finalised.
“I’ll do my own reflections, think about it,” he told the media in Cork.
“I need a long walk – from an exercise point of view, but also to clear the head and think this one through.
“There’s very serious challenges facing the country and we’ve got to keep the country right and put the people before ourselves and before parties.”
If Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael return to power, they could need one of the Dail’s smaller parties to reach the required 88 seats to form a majority.
Another option may see the two parties seek the support of independent TDs.
The Social Democrats and the Irish Labour Party, which both had a good election, appear the most realistic junior partners.
Social Democrats deputy leader Cian O’Callaghan said he was delighted with his party’s performance, saying it is now the fourth largest party.
He told the PA news agency he will talk to other parties about forming a government.
“We certainly want to go into government,” he said.
Labour leader Ivana Bacik said she was prioritising building a common platform with the similarly left-leaning Social Democrats and Greens.
“Our first priority is to build that common platform on the left,” she said.
“We have seen significant gains for us in Labour and we will be coming back with a bigger parliamentary party.”
The Green Party, which was the third plank of the last coalition, is set for a bruising set of results, with leader Roderic O’Gorman among a series of party representatives in a fight to hold on to their seats.
On Sunday, he said he had “no regrets” about going into the three-party government in 2020, but added that the two main coalition partners did the Greens “no favours”.
Despite the odds being against her party entering power, Mary Lou McDonald expressed determination on to form a historic government of the left as she insisted Sinn Féin had broken the state’s two-party duopoly.
The counting process in the Republic extends for days due to the complex system of proportional representation with a single transferable vote (PR-STV), where candidates are ranked by preference.
