The TUV was the main beneficiary from the slump in the DUP’s vote in July’s Westminster election, new data reveals.
Gavin Robinson’s party saw its vote share drop by 8.5 percentage points, losing three of its eight seats in the process and coming close to losing a further two.
The three seats lost by the DUP were gained by three different parties – Alliance, the Ulster Unionists and TUV.
Data from the freshly-published 2024 Northern Ireland General Election Survey shows TUV took most votes from its larger unionist rival.
Only 72% of those who voted DUP in the corresponding election in 2019 did so this time around, with 13.9% migrating to TUV.
The Ulster Unionists, whose former leader Robin Swann unseated sitting MP Paul Girvan in South Antrim gained 4.5% of DUP votes, while Alliance and the SDLP took 3.3% and 0.6%, respectively.
So-called ‘Others’ accounted for 4.9%, the bulk of which are likely to have gone to Alex Easton, who stood for the DUP in 2019 but was returned to Westminster this year as an independent, unseating Alliance’s Stephen Farry in North Down.
The data shows Sinn Féin voters remained resolutely loyal to the party from one election to the other.
Alliance gained 7.5% of Ulster Unionist votes, 4.6% of SDLP votes and 3.3% of DUP votes.
The Irish News columnist David McCann said the data underlined the contrasting fortunes of the DUP and Sinn Féin.
“The DUP has had its vote eaten into more than any other party, primarily by their main rivals the TUV,” he said.
“Some worrying signs are here for the UUP, who have failed to capitalise on this decline and take a substantial share of the DUP’s lost voters.”
The same survey reveals that Sinn Féin is by far the most popular party among younger voters.
The party headed in the north by Michelle O’Neill took close to one-third (32.4%) of all votes cast by those under 25 and more than one-third (35.1) of 25-45 year-olds.
None of the other parties gained more than 15% from the under 25 demographic group, with the DUP taking 14.7% and Alliance 11.8%.
Support for the SDLP is highest among the over 65 age group, where it gained 18.1% of its votes, while Alliance’s draws most of its support (16.1%) from 26-45 year-olds.
Mr McCann said Sinn Féin’s appeal was “clearly with younger people”.
“The 16-24 voter base is with them in strong numbers,” he said.
“The party will take comfort that many of the voters of the future are with the party which gives them a durable appeal over the long term.”
