Support for a united Ireland has increased by seven percentage points in just two years, a new survey shows.
The growth in support for unification in Northern Ireland between 2022-24 from 27% to 34% corresponds with a drop in the proportion in favour of maintaining the union.
The ARINS/Irish Times survey shows support in the north for remaining part of the UK has fallen from 50% to 48% over the same period.
The authors of the research suggest that if current trends continue the numbers advocating unity and supporting the status quo will be equal by 2027, with the former outstripping the latter by by four points the following year. However, they note that the data “must be accompanied with major caveats”, adding that a “linear trend may not be the most plausible deduction.”
The latest research reinforces the findings of last year’s University of Liverpool Northern Ireland General Election Survey which indicated that support for the union dropped below 50% for the first time.
It also confirms overwhelming backing for constitutional change in the Republic, with a unity vote likely pass in the south by a ratio of four to one.
The appetite on both sides of the border for a referendum on constitutional change remains strong, the survey says, and identifies a notable shift in the balance of opinion among Protestants in the north, with 44% in favour of holding a referendum, compared to 37% opposed.
Northern Protestants are also becoming increasingly acceptable of the potential for unification, according to the research. Whereas in 2022 some one in three (32%) of Northern Ireland Protestants indicated that they would find a united Ireland ‘almost impossible to accept’, the corresponding figure in the latest survey is 20% – or one in five.
Foyle MP Colum Eastwood, chair of the SDLP’s New Ireland Commission, said he was unsurprised by the growth in support for unification, citing what he termed the “hardship inflicted” on the north by previous Tory administrations and “the failure of the Stormont executive to deliver”.
“In contrast people see an Irish government in the south that is actively taking steps to improve the lives of people across this island, with the success of the Shared Island Unit driving forward many vital projects in the north,” he said.
“It’s also significant to note that this poll shows people are engaging positively with the idea of constitutional change – whatever your view on the future this place, everyone should have their say and that will be key as the New Ireland Commission enters the next phase of its work.”
Irish News columnist Brian Feeney, a board member of civic nationalist group Ireland’s Future, said the survey “reinforces the contention that there’s only one direction of travel – and that’s towards reunification”.
“It also supports the data for rapid and accelerating demographic change as evidenced in elections here over the last three years,” he said.
“The shift in ‘losers consent’ is significant because it means unionists are starting to realise their rights are safe/guaranteed in a reunited Ireland and that they’re likely to be better off, better educated and live longer. ”
Mr Feeney said the trends identified by the research “should be a wake up call for the Irish government to start preparing and planning”.
