Labour has swept to power in the biggest landslide since Tony Blair’s first election triumph 27 years ago – but the headline results only tell half the story of a momentous night in British politics.
– How did Labour win?
To turn around a catastrophic defeat – from the thumping they received under Jeremy Corbyn when the Conservatives were returned with an 80-seat majority – to a victory of historic proportions in just five years is an extraordinary achievement by any measure.
Lord (Peter) Mandelson, one of the architect’s of the party’s 1997 success, described it as an “electoral meteor” hitting Planet Earth, while for allies of Sir Keir Starmer it was the ultimate proof of the way he has changed the party.
However the figures show that it was a victory gained despite Labour’s share of the vote in England remaining virtually unchanged, at around a third, while in Wales it actually fell.
Only in Scotland, where the SNP endured a night of heavy losses, was there an increase in the party’s vote share.
Labour’s big win, then, was in part due to the vagaries of the first-past-the-post system, with the party’s votes more evenly spread across the country rather than piling up in a limited number of constituencies.
But more significantly it was the product in a collapse in support for the Tory Party, which suffered a massive 20-point fall.
– The Reform factor
When Rishi Sunak made his big gamble and decided to call the General Election for July rather than wait for the autumn, one factor in his calculations was that it would catch Reform UK on the hop.
Conservative strategists had long seen Nigel Farage’s populist insurgent party as a major threat – potentially taking votes from them in seats they were defending against Labour.
Initially, Mr Sunak’s tactics seemed to have paid off – Mr Farage said it was too late for him to find a winnable seat and that he would be spending the summer campaigning for Donald Trump in America.
A week later, that all changed, with Mr Farage announcing that not only was he taking back the leadership of the party he founded, but that he would be standing in Clacton.
It had a profound effect on the result: in scores of seats lost by the Conservatives, the Reform vote was bigger than the Tory margin of defeat.
Despite gaining a bigger share of the vote than the Liberal Democrats, Reform took just four seats – including Clacton. Mr Farage nevertheless hailed it as a “massive bridgehead”, giving them a platform to make further advances.
– The Yellow Hammer batters the Blue Wall
It was not just Reform that eroded the Tory vote, with the Liberal Democrats making big inroads into the Conservatives’ so-called Blue Wall seats across the South and South West of England.
Sir Ed Davey’s party enjoyed its best ever night, with more than 70 seats, as voters rejected the Tories in their former heartlands.
Seats once held by former prime ministers Lord (David) Cameron, Baroness (Theresa) May and Boris Johnson, fell to the Lib Dems, who also ousted Cabinet ministers Gillian Keegan, Alex Chalk, Michelle Donelan and Lucy Frazer.
– The Gaza effect
It was not just the Tories who found their vote coming under pressure.
Labour also came under attack in some of its traditional strongholds, with significant Muslim populations from independent candidates critical of the party’s stance on Gaza.
Frontbencher Jonathan Ashworth, who had been expected to play a prominent role in the new Government, was the most high-profile casualty, falling in Leicester South.
Three other former Labour MPs were also ousted by pro-Palestine candidates, while former leader Jeremy Corbyn, now standing as an independent, fought off Labour to hold Islington North.
Meanwhile, the Green Party enjoyed a good night, increasing its tally of MPs to four, including wins for co-leaders Adrian Ramsay and Carla Denyer, who beat Labour’s Thangham Debbonaire in Bristol Central.
– What now?
MPs will return to Westminster with the political landscape utterly transformed.
While voters have clearly rejected the Tories after the scandals and chaos of the Boris Johnson and Liz Truss years, it is unclear how deep support for the new Government really runs.
As he entered No 10, Sir Keir vowed to re-establish politics as “a force for good” but acknowledged “this will take a while”.
With Mr Sunak preparing to stand aside in the aftermath of defeat, the Conservatives are likely to face a lengthy struggle for the soul of the party, with recriminations already beginning to fly over where it all went wrong.
The abysmal showing of the SNP means that the issue of Scottish independence is likely to be off the table for the foreseeable future.
But in Northern Ireland, Sinn Fein – which backs a united Ireland – is now the largest party, with vice president Michelle O’Neill suggesting the time has come for the “constitutional change conversation” to take place.
And the uneven way seats were distributed could once again see calls for reform of the voting system for Westminster elections – with Mr Farage even suggesting he could make common cause with the Lib Dems.
