More than 62,000 migrants could be granted asylum in the UK as the Government attempts to clear the backlog of claims waiting to be dealt with.
The Refugee Council estimates the number of asylum applications waiting to be determined could stand at 118,063 in January now Labour has scrapped plans to send migrants to Rwanda and started processing claims again.
Analysis of official data, based on grant rates in the year to June, indicates as many as 62,801 more people could be recognised as refugees in the UK, according to the migrant charity.
It said the research suggests the total backlog at the start of next year could be 59,000 lower than at the time of the July election and if no action had been taken to change government policy.
It comes as Downing Street insisted the Government was “committed” to ending the use of asylum hotels amid claims the Home Office is considering reopening some previously closed by the Conservatives.
Meanwhile, officials are thought to be ramping up asylum decision-making and moving towards having monthly targets, similar to efforts to clear part of the backlog under the previous government.
Enver Solomon, chief executive of the migrant charity, said Labour “inherited an asylum system that was utterly broken” and while “decisive early action has been taken to stop the system from falling over” there needed to be a “comprehensive reform to create a fair, orderly and humane asylum system”.
“A functioning system is one that quickly and accurately makes decisions about who has a valid reason to be protected in the UK and who doesn’t and supports refugees to rebuild their lives,” he said.
“People seeking asylum need quick decisions so they can feel secure about their future in Britain, while the public needs to feel confident that the Government is making fair decisions about who can stay in the UK and who cannot.”
He added: “Asylum applications are moving again, but we are concerned that there is no clear plan yet to improve the rate of decision-making to keep pace with applications and avoid another backlog emerging.”
The charity based its findings on the grant rates used in the 12 months leading up to the election and looked at how that was applied to asylum seekers of different nationalities to reach their conclusions and a “working assumption” of what the figure could be.
It also noted how the estimations were similar to the number of people granted refugee status in the year to June under the previous government.
But researchers warned that the way in which decisions are reached could change and affect the number of claims approved.
The charity also suggested there may be a smaller proportion of Channel crossings accounting for asylum claims as migrants could be looking for other ways to arrive in the UK, potentially in the back of lorries, because the journey has become even harder and more dangerous.
Mr Solomon told reporters: “It’s no secret where you ramp up enforcement activity in relation to one route, not just enforcement activity close to the UK, closer to the UK Border, but all the way further back through Europe, you’re going to see a shift in how people seek to get to the UK.
“Displacement is an inevitable consequence of particular enforcement activity which is the consequence of people smugglers seeking to adopt other tactics and try different routes.”
Labour vowed in its manifesto to stop housing migrants in taxpayer-funded hotels but was on Wednesday accused of seeking to use more.
The Home Office is understood to be reviewing the hotels being used to house asylum seekers. But the department would not confirm if it is seeking to use more or reopen any of those previously closed.
A Home Office spokesman said: “This Government took quick action to restore order to the asylum system that we inherited by restarting asylum processing to clear the backlog.
“This is happening as we continue to remove more people with no right to be here – with over 3,000 people returned since we formed government – while also driving down the costs of asylum accommodation to save money for the taxpayer.”
