Current national climate plans ‘fall miles short’ of averting worst impacts – UN

Current national climate plans “fall miles short” of what is required to avert the worst impacts of global warming, the UN has warned.

These plans – known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) – would see global emissions in 2030 at a level only 2.6% lower than in 2019, according to a report from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

This falls far short of the 43% reduction by 2030 called for by the global Paris Agreement, which commits countries to take action on curbing temperature rises to prevent devastating climate impacts.

Simon Stiell, executive secretary of UN Climate Change, warned that greenhouse gas pollution under this current trajectory “will guarantee a human and economic train wreck for every country, without exception”.

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Governments are legally bound to submit new NDCs every five years, outlining how they plan to cut emissions over the next decade.

Countries are due to table their new proposals for 2025-2035 ahead of Cop30 in Brazil in December next year.

The UK Government climate advisers last week recommended the country commits to cutting emissions by at least 81% on 1990 levels by the middle of the 2030s in its new NDC.

Under the Paris Agreement, net global greenhouse gas emissions need to be cut by 60% by 2035 compared to 2019 levels to avert the worst impacts of warming, on the road to net zero by 2050.

Mr Stiell said the latest report “must be a turning point, ending the era of inadequacy and sparking a new age of acceleration, with much bolder new national climate plans from every country due next year.”

“The report’s findings are stark but not surprising – current national climate plans fall miles short of what’s needed to stop global heating from crippling every economy, and wrecking billions of lives and livelihoods across every country,” he said.

“As expected, with countries currently working to put together new NDCs due next year, this year’s report shows only fractional progress compared to what is expected – and urgently needed – next year.”

Mr Stiell called for “much bolder new national climate plans” that can drive stronger investment, economic growth, jobs, less pollution, better health, lower costs and other transformational benefits in every nation.

He said the new plans need to have ambitious new emissions targets, must be broken down into sectors and gases and must be credible, backed up by substantive regulations, laws, and funding to ensure goals are met and plans implemented.

The report comes ahead of countries gathering for negotiations at the UN climate conference Cop29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, next month.

Dr Doug Parr, Greenpeace UK’s policy director, said: “As we approach the Cop29 climate conference, with floods and hurricanes devastating lives and livelihoods around the world in real time, the past, present and the future all paint a terrifying picture for the fate of humanity and should serve as a slap in the face to governments all across the world.

“Now is the moment for real leadership from the heads of the global community, and the UK Government must step up and deliver it, as promised.

“Together with ending all new oil and gas licences, the Labour Government must at least triple renewables and double home energy efficiency rates by 2030, as well as properly support workers to transition away from polluting industries. Failure is not an option.”

Patrick Galey, senior fossil fuels investigator at Global Witness, said: “As we reel from the impacts of record-breaking heat, devastating hurricanes and floods, the need for climate action could not be more obvious.

“Unfortunately we’re still seeing governments fight fire with water pistols.

“At this year’s Cop, we need to see leaders radically shift gear and push for a rapid and just phase-out of fossil fuels.”

Climate minister Kerry McCarthy said: “This report highlights why it is crucial all major emitters bring forward ambitious emission reduction targets consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees.

“Britain is back in the business of climate leadership because the only way to protect current generations in the UK is by making Britain a clean energy superpower, and the only way to protect our children and future generations is by leading global climate action.

“The UK will announce an ambitious target at Cop29, and we will support other countries to do the same.

“All countries must work together to protect current and future generations from climate disaster.”