Scotland’s First Minister will warn that blocking the Scottish Government’s draft Budget risks “feeding the forces of anti-politics and populism”, in his first speech of the new year.
Mr Swinney will warn opposition parties against pursuing stalemates and will urge them to help deliver progress for Scotland by backing the plans set out by Finance Secretary Shona Robison in December.
With the SNP in a minority administration at Holyrood, Ms Robison and Mr Swinney need at least one other party to back the draft Budget for it to pass.
Mr Swinney will give his first speech of 2025 in Edinburgh on Monday to representatives from organisations across the public and private sectors.
He is expected to say: “If we are to meet the challenge of this age, we have to make sure that our politics works for the people we serve – and that means, ultimately, doing the hard work that ensures Scotland has a Budget.
“If the Budget falls, the impact will not be felt primarily, directly, by the MSPs who choose to vote ‘no’. It will be felt by the people in this room and the people you serve.
“Voters will rightly struggle to understand why politicians, despite being in agreement with probably more than 95% of the Budget’s contents, choose to block it from passing to prove some nebulous – and ultimately highly damaging – political point.
“We do not have to look far beyond Scotland’s shores to see what happens when politicians and political parties pursue stalemates instead of progress and delivery.
“So be in no doubt. If people do not see Scotland’s parliament delivering progress for Scotland’s people – if instead it embarks down a path of political posturing and intransigence – then we run a real risk of feeding the forces of anti-politics and of populism.
“That is not something I am prepared to countenance in Scotland, because in that circumstance, nobody wins.”
The draft Budget is expected to be voted on in the coming weeks.
The speech in Edinburgh will be the first in a series of events across Scotland where Mr Swinney will set out what he sees as the benefits of the draft 2025-26 Budget and the importance of the Scottish Parliament passing the Budget Bill.
He is expected to say: “In these opening days of 2025, let us resolve that it be a year of progress for Scotland.
“The first step is for Parliament to come together and to pass a Budget that enables us to get on with delivering.
“So let’s choose progress, let’s choose renewal and let’s choose hope.”
Scottish Liberal Democrat leader Alex Cole-Hamilton MSP said: “Given there is no prospect of an early election it’s incumbent on opposition parties to try to shape the Budget in a way that will best unpick some of the damage caused by years of SNP neglect.
“You can see significant Liberal Democrat demands baked into the pages of the Budget’s first draft.
“There is the reinstatement of the winter fuel allowance for pensioners, spending on social care, affordable homes, family carers, additional support needs, GPs, dentists, long Covid, the Belford Hospital in Fort William and Edinburgh’s Eye Pavilion.
“Our priorities reflect our continued commitment to getting our constituents fast access to healthcare, fighting for a fair deal for carers, lifting up Scottish education and growing the economy.
“Whether we back the Budget in the final analysis will depend on the detail of the commitments made so far and what progress is offered on other key priorities for us.”
Scottish Greens MSP Ross Greer said that “if the First Minister is prepared to be bolder, then he will have our support”.
He added: “The Scottish Greens have been constructive and transparent about what we want from the Budget.
“Until now the Scottish Government has been similarly constructive, so this hugely overblown rhetoric from the First Minister is a disappointing way to start the new year.
“We have already secured key Green Budget proposals, including a record £4.9 billion for climate and nature.
“This is only the start of the process however and we certainly won’t be writing the SNP a blank cheque.”
He said the Scottish Greens believe the Budget can do more to tackle poverty in particular, including through measures like expanding free school meals and making public transport cheaper.
Scottish Conservative finance spokesman Craig Hoy MSP said: “If the Scottish Parliament votes down the nationalists’ budget then John Swinney will only have himself to blame.
“The SNP’s budget makes Scotland the highest taxed part of the UK and fails to provide support for struggling businesses. John Swinney just doesn’t understand how hard Scots are working to make ends meet.
“The Scottish Conservatives put forward a fully costed tax plan that would cut bills for workers, home buyers and businesses, but Shona Robison shamefully mocked it because the SNP aren’t interested in letting Scots keep more of their hard-earned money.
“Our common-sense tax plan is backed by business and workers, but the SNP continues to ignore them by hiking taxes, while failing to deliver good quality public services.”
Scottish Labour has also been asked for comment.
