Parts of the UK could see temperatures rise to 30C at the weekend after well above-average rainfall figures in the first half of the month.
But before the mini-heatwave arrives in the South East of England at the end of the week, the country faces a weather warning in south-east Scotland and north-east England on Tuesday evening.
The Met Office has issued a yellow warning for rain in that area, with some places receiving 15-20mm in as little as an hour and 30-40mm over several hours.
Met Office spokesperson Nicola Maxey said that could affect driving conditions, along with there being a risk of thunder and lightning.
Heavy showers developing across the northeast with the risk of thunder ⛈️
Lighter showers and sunny spells further south with the brightest of the conditions in the southwest 🌤️ pic.twitter.com/GTmvkz5cIz
— Met Office (@metoffice) July 16, 2024
Elsewhere in England and Wales, temperatures were set to rise on Tuesday with an improving picture over the coming days, and more sunshine for many.
By Friday, temperatures in London and the South East could reach 30C before milder conditions return on Sunday.
Ms Maxey said night-time temperatures could stay in the low 20s for parts of south-east England – officially classified as “tropical nights” if they do not drop below 20C – with there being health implications for the elderly or infirm.
She said there was still uncertainty over how soon the milder conditions would come in, with the possibility that the South East could retain its heat a little longer than elsewhere.
High pressure in the east draws up warmer air form the continent over the next few days 🌡️
Temperatures will peak at around 30 Celsius in parts of the southeast by Friday
A frontal system pushes the warm air away through Sunday where temperatures will fall towards the low 20s pic.twitter.com/CGJc9Ll7Qg
— Met Office (@metoffice) July 16, 2024
Meanwhile, parts of the country have already well-exceeded July’s average rainfall figures despite only being halfway through the month.
The Met Office spokesperson said England had 97% of July’s average rainfall between July 1 and 15, Wales had 65%, Scotland 49% and Northern Ireland 47%.
London has had 154% of its July average already and Dorset 120%. Edinburgh has only had 40% and Dundee 33%.
Ms Maxey said: “There are quite big regional differences but overall it’s looking like a wet month so far.
![Conditions were damp at Royal Troon on Scotland’s west coast where Spain’s Jon Rahm was among the players preparing for this week’s Open golf championship](https://www.irishnews.com/resizer/v2/VG62ZRI4HJLRJHYIBMNCKNF7VI.jpg?auth=ccba8d2c2093c0e76ed9deffe6f94388df1673d3e08111147d089b20ebdf1250&width=800&height=533)
“There is a caveat that, with a dry couple of weeks, by the end of the month things could even themselves out.”
She said that two or three heavy downpours often caused much of a location’s July rainfall totals, rather than a prolonged period of wet weather.
St Swithin’s Day on Monday – traditionally said to predict the next 40 days of weather – was another wet one for much of England and Wales.
But the Met Office said conditions next week would be “changeable” rather than just rainy, with temperatures close to average.