European Union leaders have insisted that no decisions can be taken about the future of war-ravaged Ukraine without its consent or behind the backs of its partners in Europe, barely a month before US President-elect Donald Trump takes office.
Ukraine’s position is precarious more than 1,000 days into the war.
Russia continues to make gains on the battlefield, pushing the front line gradually westwards despite suffering heavy casualties. Ukraine’s energy network is in tatters and military recruits are hard to find.
In a show of solidarity at a summit in Brussels with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, many EU leaders repeated a variation of what has become a common mantra – nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine, nothing about security in Europe without Europeans.
Mr Trump returns to the White House on January 20 having promised to end the war in Ukraine quickly and talked up his relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Many Europeans are concerned that it might result in a poor deal for Ukraine.
Rumours are swirling in Europe about possible peace talks in early 2025, and whether European peacekeepers might be needed to enforce any settlement, but the leaders are trying to keep a lid on speculation about what they are prepared to do, so as not to tip their hand to Russia.
The priority now, they say, must be to strengthen Ukraine’s hand, should Mr Zelensky decide it is time to negotiate.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said that it is important to “ensure long-term aid to Ukraine – it must be clear that we are prepared to enable support as long as it is needed”. Air defence, artillery and ammunition are high on the list, he told reporters.
Asked about Mr Trump, Mr Scholz said that his impression from talking to the president-elect “is that good co-operation between Europe and the US is possible”. He said that “the principle is always: no decisions over Ukrainians’ heads, and that of course means over those of the European states”.
Luxembourg Prime Minister Luc Frieden had a similar message.
“We need to stand with Ukraine, and every step… needs to be taken with Ukraine and in the presence of the European Union. The future of Ukraine is decided in Europe and not elsewhere,” he said.
Dutch Prime Minister Dick Schoof underlined that Ukraine must be the country that “determines under what conditions talks can possibly take place”, adding: “And it is not for us to talk about that. At the moment, Ukraine has not yet indicated that they are prepared to do so.”
It is difficult to predict what Mr Trump might do, and whether history might be a reliable guide.
Under his previous presidency, in 2020, the United States inked a deal on a military withdrawal from Afghanistan directly with the strongest player – the Taliban insurgents – mostly playing down the concerns of the Afghan government and president.
The chaotic exit in 2021, finally ordered by US President Joe Biden, humiliated Washington and its allies in Nato as the Afghan security forces they had trained for years and invested billions in collapsed and the Taliban swept to power.
“From the beginning of next year, we need very much unity between the United States and EU, and countries of Europe,” Mr Zelensky told reporters at the summit. “Only together the United States and Europe can stop Putin and save Ukraine.”
He added: “It’s very difficult to support Ukraine without American help.”
