A border poll is more likely than not in the next decade or so.
In the run-up, we’ll see a series of discussions and decisions on the precise terms and conditions which would determine its calling; as well as a broadening of the campaigning by civic groups like Ireland’s Future and a greater input from the next Irish government (particularly if Leo Varadkar, as I think he will, becomes the lead figure in a new lobby for unity).
Unionism – in its political, electoral and cultural manifestations – is likely to insist that the terms and conditions for a border poll won’t be met for at least 50 years.
But the very fact that some senior figures are now admitting that the conditions are likely to be met at all within the lifetimes of the generation which had its first vote in July 4’s general election is actually incredibly significant.
And certainly, significant enough to persuade the emerging leadership of unionism to start planning some sort of counter-strategy rather than, as tended to happen with the post-1972 leadership generation, being caught on the hop when reality smacked it in the face.
But there is an issue which I don’t think either generation has given particular attention to.
In the continuing absence of genuine reconciliation between unionism and nationalism in Northern Ireland, it is surely worth considering whether that reconciliation is possible in a united Ireland.
Let’s face it, 26 years after the Good Friday Agreement and the return of devolution, it would be difficult for even the Pollyanna wing of optimists to make a convincing case that we are a happy, settled, reconciled society.
The overwhelming majority of those who vote do so for parties which remain divided on the constitutional issue. At some point even Alliance – the largest home for the middle ground right now – will have to come off the fence and make a call.
Generally speaking, NI still meets most of the requirements considered necessary to define a society as polarised: who, for example, blinks an eye or raises a voice of protest when the phrase ‘us and them’ is used in everyday discourse?
Do we really believe that the societal/political/constitutional/identity problems which have dogged this place since 1921 will be magicked or negotiated away if a border poll removes Northern Ireland from the UK and folds it into a new, reunited Ireland?
The identity question, of course, can be traced back hundreds of years before what I’ll describe as modern partition. It is likely to remain a feature of everyday politics in what was NI, even if Ireland is reunited in 10, 20 or 50 years’ time.
And that’s because the sense of who we are, who we were and who we want to be tends never to disappear. We carry memories and baggage with us our entire lives – many of which are handed down through our DNA – and it is those memories and that baggage which continue to shape us politically and electorally. They also fuel the desire to preserve an us-and-them identity and lifestyle.
I have a sneaky regard for Ireland’s Future. It is planning and campaigning for what it thinks is an inevitable united Ireland; and I wish unionism was doing as much in terms of planning and campaigning to secure NI within the UK.
The unionist flame for their own status, culture, history and identity won’t be extinguished by the removal of partition
But what Ireland’s Future doesn’t appear to be doing is addressing the reconciliation issue. Talking about how unionism might be made to feel comfortable in a united Ireland is one thing; but comfortable and reconciled are not the same things.
The nationalist flame for Irish unity wasn’t extinguished by partition or devolution (and a thumping unionist majority) in 1921. The unionist flame for their own status, culture, history and identity won’t be extinguished by the removal of partition and the shifting of governance to Dublin.
Neither side won in 1921, or even in 1998. And neither side will win in the future if they haven’t produced a deal which underpins reconciliation from day one.