Revolutions are funny old things. You can never be entirely sure of the precise moment or incident which kickstarts them, let alone what will be left behind after the debris has been blown away.
Yet, to paraphrase Jacques Mallet du Pan – an observer of the French one – revolutions usually eat their young; replacing the old ways completely, even if it means destroying the good parts of the past along with the bad.
There have been two revolutions in the United Kingdom in my lifetime. The first one began in 1968 – although its roots go back much further – with the Northern Ireland Civil Rights Association and the justifiable demand for equality of rights and citizenship.
Within five years the NI Parliament had been closed down, mandatory power-sharing was introduced, the still dominant presence of political/electoral unionism began to crumble, nationalism emerged in a more coherent form, and on-the-street protests were superseded by terrorism from elements from both communities.
While it is true that there has been huge and ongoing change since 1968, it is not true to say that this revolution has ended. The violence, for the most part, is over, but the conflict is stalemated rather than resolved. And that’s because, like all revolutions, the Newtonian principle underpins all change, meaning that each action will continue to be met with an equal and opposite reaction.
When, or if, the revolution ends, can’t be known, because there are still two polar opposites – maybe even three – who have demands to be met or resisted. And the notion that Irish unity would end the revolution is fatuous: it would just alter the focus.
The second revolution began in 2015 when David Cameron and his allies, in an attempt to stop a drift to Ukip and win an overall majority for the Conservatives, offered a referendum on EU membership in their election manifesto.
Of course, they offered it because they believed that the Remain argument would carry the day without much effort on their part. It’s that sort of complacency and we-know-better-than-you thinking which often leads to revolution.
The first casualty, rather fittingly I suppose, was David Cameron. Within hours of finding himself on the losing side of the vote (and having made no preparations for anything other than an easy victory) he announced his resignation. He was just the first of many senior figures within the party, including prime ministers, cabinet ministers and disgruntled backbench Remainers, who disappeared from the frontline over the next eight years as the party imploded.
Meanwhile, Nigel Farage has swaggered his way to the epicentre of UK politics. He is now the most influential political figure in politics here; and his influence has also fuelled the rise of new right-wing, populist movements across the EU and even trickled into US politics thanks to his link with Donald Trump.
He is an expert in both disruptive and destructive strategies and is ruthless in his determination to be the sole setter of the political and electoral agenda.
Farage is ruthless in his determination to be the sole setter of the political and electoral agenda
Like all revolutionaries – which is what he is – he needs instability. The meltdown within the Conservative Party, Labour’s problem with Corbyn, the battles with the EU and even Covid and its aftermath (including a growing disconnect between the public and the established political/societal status quo institutions) suited him perfectly. That’s because what he fears most is stability: because stability kills revolutions.
He has chosen the Westminster route on July 4 (he’s likely to win a seat) and hopes to be the key figure in the opposition. Labour will have a whopping majority but he’s hoping that his planned reverse takeover of the parliamentary Conservative party (along with a handful of Reform MPs and even support from Sammy Wilson and Ian Paisley) will allow him to pursue guerrilla tactics inside Westminster while building a new political vehicle outside.
[ Feeney on Friday: Why would anyone want the endorsement of Nigel Farage?Opens in new window ]
And in that task he is likely to be assisted by GB News, social media platforms, the right-of-centre press, a few billionaires and massive grassroots input.
This revolution has a long way to run, and it will be running in tandem with what is happening in places like France, Germany and Italy and also in the US if Trump wins again.
It’s impact, like the 1789 French model, will be felt across the world: a world that is already in a worryingly unsettled state. Fasten your seatbelts.
