Alex Kane: Here’s a job for you Leo – leading a broad-based campaign for Irish unity

As soon as Leo Varadkar announced his resignation, the debate immediately shifted to what he would do next. He’s only 45, after all, which is, particularly in politics, still regarded as young.

There are a number of options, including a role in the EU administration or even a run at the Irish presidency in 2025.

He may follow the path of someone like Tony Blair and get involved in international diplomacy and consultancy projects. Or he may leave politics behind altogether and immerse himself in charitable or business ventures.

There is, of course, one other role he might want to carve out for himself. Leading a brand new, broader-based campaign for the reunification of Ireland.

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Varadkar has made no secret that he believes in reunification and has suggested on a number of occasions that it will happen in his lifetime; but he has also said that it mustn’t be rushed and that a border poll should be some way down the line.

I’ve also thought – although he has never really been all that explicit on the issue – that he views Sinn Féin, with all of its baggage and linkage to the IRA, as a hindrance to the unity project.

Fair enough, he also managed to annoy huge swathes of unionism in Northern Ireland during a few Brexit crisis points; some even believed that he was threatening a return to violence if a new, hard border was put in place.

I’ve no idea what his immediate political/electoral plans are, although I would be surprised if he decided to seek re-election. Being away from political office would give him a freedom he hasn’t had before and would make it much easier for him to build the sort of campaign coalition that could address all of the pre-reunification issues he has mentioned in the past few years.

Reunification will take time. Varadkar has that time. It will also require agreement across key political/electoral/civic/business et al sectors. That sort of agreement is probably best built by someone freed from political baggage. He could well be free from that baggage within a year.

He has proved that he’s not afraid of a battle: indeed, some unionists secretly wished that UK PMs would have been as committed to protecting their interests as he was to protecting Irish interests.

And he does appear to enjoy the respect of political players in Brussels, Washington and – although whisper it – London.

“If we’re going to win a referendum on that matter, a huge amount of work has to be done to convince the British people in Northern Ireland, those of British identity, that they’re welcome and wanted – and that a united Ireland would be a warm home for them. There’s not enough talk about that.”

“We have to be willing to consider all that we’d be willing to change – new titles, shared symbols, how devolution in the north would fit into the arrangements, a new Senate to strengthen the representation of minorities, the role and status of our languages, a new and closer relationship with the United Kingdom. Until these and other questions are answered, until we have a clear proposition to put to the people on both parts of our island, then a border poll is premature.”

“We have seen all around the world what happens when important referendums fail. I think having a referendum on such an important matter that you may not win is fraught with risk. Defeat will bring division.”

Comments like these down the years indicate that Varadkar has given long and deep consideration to the issue. He knows, too, that the circumstances and dynamics have changed since 2016 and that the issue of reunification is on the agenda – even if it’s not at the top.

So far reunification has been regarded as a Sinn Féin priority. But what happens if it becomes a much wider campaign under a vehicle run by someone like Varadkar?

What would push it up the agenda is a campaign led and orchestrated by someone like him; a campaign which wasn’t rushing to a vote but was prepared to up the ante in terms of preparation and strategy.

So far reunification has been regarded as a Sinn Féin priority, although Ireland’s Future has also had a role. But what happens if reunification becomes a much wider campaign under a vehicle run by someone like Varadkar? A campaign focussed on the long term rather than 2030? A campaign with buy-in from Irish sectors which have kept their distance from other campaigns and vehicles?

Hmm. That could be very interesting.