Alex Kane: It’s going to be softly, softly, catchy monkey for Irish unity

It is quite surprising – and I’m speaking from a unionist perspective – how annoyed elements of nationalism in Northern Ireland are becoming by what they regard as a disinterest in unity matters by the Irish government.

My old friend Brian Feeney (and no, you don’t have to respond to this one, Brian) and others have been very dismissive of Micheál Martin and Simon Harris’ efforts – or lack of them – to put beef on the bones of the supposedly constitutional imperative to unite the island.

And in the past few days there have also been complaints about Martin’s failure to appoint anyone from Northern Ireland to the Seanad Éireann.

But, let’s be honest, why should he appoint anyone? Who would they even represent?

There aren’t three people from here who would be able to speak neutrally for the entirety of the place; and even if you settled for a unionist, nationalist and ‘other’, how would you decide who they were?

I’ve always had a very good relationship with former Senator Ian Marshall. We were both members of the UUP and it’s fair to say that within unionism we would both be viewed as fairly liberal.

But since the majority of unionism/loyalism doesn’t fall into the category of fairly liberal, it would be clear that neither Ian nor I (although I, for a variety of reasons, would never be approached) would be speaking for the majority of unionism.

The same argument applies to a nationalist or ‘other,’ because they, too, would not be in a position to speak for the entirety of their community.

So, what you tend to end up with – and I mean no disrespect to anyone from here who has ever been appointed to the Seanad – is people who suit the particular optics at the time.

In other words, they are likely to operate within already understood parameters and are likely not to rock any boats.

Quite apart from all of that, I do have long-standing concerns about people placed in office by appointment rather than election.

Now then, let’s just think for a moment about why the new Irish government, like the one before it and the one before that etc, seems to be dragging its heels.

Their manifestoes are full of stuff about the all-island unit and all-island projects, as well as whispered aspirations about a day when there will be one big happy Irish family across all thirty-two counties.

But the fact of the matter is that most of the parties seem reasonably content to accept that, while in terms of unity, their day may be coming, they’re not particularly fussed if it isn’t coming any time soon.

And the reason for that is that unity requires a majority vote in both jurisdictions and, irrespective of what Sinn Féin wants, the political/electoral establishment in the south isn’t going to push for a border poll it’s unlikely to win soon.

Crucially, it isn’t going to prioritise a unity project on the basis that unity is inevitable: for all that would do is antagonise a significant majority of the unionist/loyalist community, with the knock-on impact that would have on the already fragile political stability up here.

Which is why Irish governments have stuck to the generally bilateral policy of a preparedness to highlight personal in-my-lifetime aspirations about unity, while always steering well clear of anything which smacks of pushing the pro-union community into an immediate showdown.

Particularly a showdown in which a bankable majority for unity still seems like a very big ask when you cross the border from south to north.

Shortly after Brexit I spoke to a ‘player’ in the Irish government who put an interesting point to me.

He thought that a border poll was inevitable – although he still thought it would be at least a couple of decades – but should only be called when there was something describable as good relations across the island, particularly in the north.

And, paraphrasing what he said next, “Call a poll when the north is unsettled, and unionists and loyalists are riled up by inevitability stuff from us, and any outcome will be spectacularly messy. We must avoid that scenario.”

I thought he was right at the time. I still think he’s right.

Which is why I also think any Irish government, which doesn’t include Sinn Féin, is likely to soft-pedal on unity rather than push too hard, too fast.

This is classic softly, softly, catchy monkey territory. Sinn Féin and some smaller pro-unity campaign groups differ, of course; although that is probably more to do with a fear that Fianna Fáil/Fine Gael will claim the eventual credit if unity does happen.

The unity journey to a free, sovereign, independent Ireland has been an extraordinarily long one. Some believe the goal is tantalisingly close to completion.

They wouldn’t, of course, be the first to think that.

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