The momentum gathers, the pace accelerates.
In June at the SSE Arena, Leo Varadkar told the thousands in the audience: “What I hope we’ll see happen in the next government, whatever parties are in it, that we’ll see what is a long-standing political aspiration towards unification become a political objective. It means actively working towards it, preparing the ground for it.”
His interview with Jim Fitzpatrick was a game-changer. You’ll notice that while no-one in the Irish government has stepped forward to put flesh on the bones of his argument, no-one has rejected his remarks.
Last week another milestone was passed. The Oireachtas Joint Committee on the Implementation of the Good Friday Agreement published its first report on ‘Perspectives on Constitutional Change’.
This one is concerned with finance and economics; others will follow. Leaving aside the contents of the report for the moment, the fact that the committee published it is important in itself.
For a start, the committee contains members from both the Dáil and the Seanad. Secondly, it’s an all-party report produced by members of Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil, Sinn Féin, Greens, Aontú and Independents. There was no minority report disagreeing with the findings of a majority.
The report makes 15 recommendations. Number 15 says simply: “The committee recommends preparation to begin immediately.” Preparation for what? For a united Ireland, that’s what.
Recommendations 11, 12, 13 and 14 respectively state that planning and preparation begin for the possibility of change to constitutional arrangements for the country; that government prepare and publish a Green Paper setting out a vision for a united Ireland; that an Oireachtas committee be mandated, adequately resourced and dedicated to the preparation for a united Ireland; and that preparation for a united Ireland should include thoughtful and extensive public engagement, north and south.
The committee reached their conclusions and made their recommendations after hearing evidence presented by dozens of financial, business and economic experts since May last year.
There was much disagreement among the experts about the cost and timing of moving to a united Ireland, but it’s a no brainer that you have to start planning for it since there’s only one direction of travel.
Professor Seamus McGuinness of the ESRI (Economic and Social Research Institute) advocated that planning begin immediately because of the uncertainty of when a referendum might be called and because of the scale of work required to prepare for a referendum. Professor John Doyle of Dublin City University said research should be done in advance because “the day a referendum is called the capacity to do research on a neutral basis ends because everyone is in campaigning mode”.
Two major themes underlay the discussions which, remember, were about finance and economics. One was how to bring the north’s standards of benefits and services up to European levels after decades of neglect and the other, cognate with that, how long would it take?
On the first, the report advocates beefing up Shared Island funding to develop and improve infrastructure here, which otherwise isn’t going to happen. Allied to that is greater cooperation to attract Foreign Direct Investment, a difficulty because for services the north isn’t in the EU.
The second problem – how long to bring benefits up to European standards – will mean a long process after political reunification because, thanks to the DUP’s friends the Conservatives, British benefits are the worst in Europe.
One example is pay-related jobseekers benefit coming in after the south’s budget in October. People with five years’ insurance who lose their job will be entitled to 60% of their income up to a maximum of €450 a week for three months, reducing to 50% after six months. Jobseekers allowance here is £90.50 a week for over-25s. Just one of a host of matters which need to be examined and resolved before as referendum.
Professor Doyle pointed out to the committee that in the case of Scotland’s referendum, although a book of over 600 pages had been produced explaining implications, people still felt they needed more information.
You know the old adage: failing to prepare is preparing to fail. Think of Brexit.
Of course the present Irish government has done its best to ignore the report, with the apostate Micheál Martin misrepresenting it as Sinn Féin shouting from the hilltops for a referendum.
However, it’s an all-party report which will be debated in the autumn. It will be up to the government to explain why they refuse to follow any of its recommendations.
As further reports examining aspects other than finance and economics are published, the pressure will grow. You know the old adage: failing to prepare is preparing to fail. Think of Brexit.