At Fianna Fáil’s weekend mini-ard fheis, the atmosphere was euphoric, the mood nostalgic. Just like old times.
Here was the man, once predicted to be the first Fianna Fáil leader never to be taoiseach, back for the second time as taoiseach.
Here was Fianna Fáil back again as the largest party in government after looking to be on the verge of oblivion 15 years ago.
Buttressed by the Regional Independent Group (RIG) providing a solid majority, there’s a renewed swagger and arrogance about Micheál Martin.
All criticism of his deal brokered by the discredited Michael Lowry, whom Martin excoriated in 2011 as unfit to be a TD, of his agreeing to the ridiculous position where the RIG can be supporting his government and yet also able to ask questions as the opposition – yes, really – he dismisses as “negative” media attitudes.
He doesn’t get it. In a way it is just like old times, yes, but old Fianna Fáil times, that is. Not a good thing.
His government is off to a sleazy start: bought, but not yet paid for.
What’s the point in being a back-bench Fianna Fáil TD when some Independent concerned with a parish pump in Ballygobackwards can sell his support for a €1 million ring road round the pump?
By clustering around him all the Independents in the Dáil determined to maintain the status quo, whether on the environment, agriculture, infrastructure and so on, Martin (and Harris, who’s now very much second fiddle) has produced the most right-wing, conservative government in decades.
Paying off the RIG’s unpredictable local demands while keeping them all happy will be like herding cats.
Martin’s government will be the most introspective and short-sighted since Brian Cowen’s.
Both Martin and Harris have substantially watered down their manifesto promises on the north, constitutional change, and preparations for reunification.
Yes, there’s a further €1 billion for the Shared Island fund, increased staffing for it in the Taoiseach’s Office, and a commitment to pay for northern students to participate in Erasmus+ exchange study, all of which is welcome.
North-south rail links and infrastructure will be enhanced and funding for nursing students will continue.
Nevertheless, in the big picture there are many shortcomings, which Leo Varadkar highlighted in an article at the weekend.
Varadkar said the programme for government “is noticeably weaker than both [FF and FG] manifestos were. Rather than unification as a commitment or objective, there is a reference only to ‘unity of the Irish people’”.
There is nothing on “what the future constitutional arrangements of a new Ireland might look like”.
It’s true that there will be increased research on the differences north and south, mainly to ascertain how much reunification will cost in health, education and economic aspects, such as productivity, where the north lags far behind.
All that indicates this Irish government is aware reunification is on the cards, but they’re not prepared to do anything concrete to prepare for it.
Varadkar concludes in his article that “the impetus to work towards and plan for [unification] will have to come from outside Leinster House.” Does that suggest he might pursue it himself?
Varadkar also drew attention to the fact that the new government is not looking at the long term.
The programme for government extols better British-Irish relations and improved partnership on the north, which Varadkar points out is the first time this has been the case for over 15 years.
However, he cautions that will not always be the case. He cites the “rocky start” of Starmer’s government and its terrible poll ratings and warns: “The reset in relations we are experiencing right now might turn out to be… nothing more than a brief interlude”.
British politics are unstable and unpredictable and “there could be a dramatic shift back to Europhobia and British or English nationalism”, which Varadkar foresees as having “reverberations for Ireland and the north in particular… with an inevitable increase in support for unification of north and south… These sorts of events are not anticipated in the programme for government.”
Certainly the incoming government doesn’t seem to be able or willing to look beyond the next Dáil debate. Varadkar says the civil service in Dublin “should begin a file” for contingency planning.
One conclusion we can be certain of is that Micheál Martin will do nothing to promote constitutional change because northern nationalism supports Sinn Féin, his main opposition in the south. Northern reinforcements would displace FF in the Dáil.
This FF/FG conservative government’s determination to preserve the status quo is so obvious it’s self-defeating.
Unlike King Canute, who set out to show the incoming tide was unstoppable, Martin’s ambition is to hold it up only until 2027 when he leaves.