It’s early days for working out the permutations of coalition in the south but the discussion seems to centre around whether Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael will form a government with Labour.
Leo Varadkar said at the weekend that while 88 is the figure for a majority you’d need at least 90, preferably 95 for stability. Labour with nine seats seems the ideal partner then.
It’s not just the number of seats though. Arithmetic is certainly a consideration, but there are other equally important factors as well. There was an affinity between Labour and the two civil war parties during the voting. Labour was the preferred destination for transfers from both FF and FG after they’d transferred to each other: 11% of FF transfers and 10% of FG’s then went on to Labour.
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Going into coalition opens serious divisions in Labour however. The party’s last experience as government mudguard ended in disaster in the 2016 election after being implicated in austerity since 2011. The wipe out of the Greens in this election is also a salutary warning. Many in the Labour party strongly oppose going into coalition alone for those reasons.
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Nevertheless, it looks like they’d have no choice because FF/FG don’t want the Social Democrats in too because 20 Labour and SDs would wield too much power, demand too many ministerial and junior ministerial seats, and be able to demand significant policy changes in taxation and public expenditure.
Far preferable for FF/FG would be a deal with a few Independents, many of whom have already indicated their desire to get into government. There’s another attraction with Independents. They’re less likely to walk out and collapse the government than an organised party like Labour or SDs if the going got rough socially or economically.
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The people who walk out tend to be blamed for causing the ensuing election so walking out is a big risk for disparate Independents.
What does it matter for this place who’s in a coalition? A coalition involving either Labour or, less likely, the SDs is preferable to a collection of Independents who don’t give tuppence about the north. None of them can see further than their parish pump or outside the aura of their own ego.
What went largely unreported is that for the first time all the major parties produced manifestos with sections on the north devoted to unity. Taking up their former leader’s proposal that an Irish government should have reunification as an objective rather than an aspiration, Fine Gael in its manifesto does state that.
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Rather surprisingly so do all the other parties, an indication of the growing discussion about reunification since Brexit and the dwindling electoral fortunes of unionism.
A coalition involving either Labour or the SDs is preferable to a collection of Independents who don’t give tuppence about the north. None of them can see further than their parish pump or outside the aura of their own ego
FF’s manifesto is very interesting. Having said unity “remains a founding value and objective”, it then goes into Micheál Martin wafflespeak about reconciliation and peaceful means. Like, did anyone imagine FF was thinking of armed struggle?
The interesting part, however, is that an extra €1 billion will be allocated to the Shared Island Fund. Details are provided over five pages of a ‘Shared Island Agenda’ proposing 13 pledges to develop.
There’s no indication of a timescale, but €2-300 million a year would add up nicely. Few unionists will have read the Fianna Fáil manifesto which is probably just as well because if they had, it would give them conniptions. With FF the largest party in government it’s going to be implemented.
Labour has signed up to the Shared Island project in its manifesto under its section entitled ‘Uniting Ireland for all’. The party presents a detailed series of proposals for joint working in health, energy, the all-Ireland economy and more. They also ask, along the lines of the report of the all-party Oireachtas committee on the Good Friday Agreement, that the government puts in place “a framework for the Irish government to plan for the potential of a future united Ireland”.
The SDs’ section on unity is the vaguest. It says there’s no road map to unity but it doesn’t provide one itself.
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Unsurprisingly Sinn Féin makes the most detailed proposals including a Green paper, a minister responsible and a timetable leading to a referendum, but since SF won’t be in government they’ll not be able to implement any of it.
What is important is that all the parties felt obliged to address reunification as an objective: that’s a first. In that respect it’s preferable for the north if a coalition includes a party like Labour or the SDs with manifesto commitments as opposed to Independents.
If government ends up as a three-party coalition it’s up to Sinn Féin in the Dáil and northern nationalists to press for those commitments to be included in the programme for government, costed and timetabled, when it’s published.
