Just when you think the clown car that is the Conservative election campaign has suffered every calamity imaginable, Rishi Sunak’s party somehow contrives to give voters further reason to deliver a resounding rejection of this government on July 4.
The latest controversy surrounds bets allegedly being placed on the timing of the election prior to the official announcement last month.
The story has been gathering momentum over the last fortnight since an aide to Sunak said he made a “huge error of judgement” by allegedly placing a £100 bet three days before the prime minister named the date.
Several more Conservative figures have since been linked to a Gambling Commission investigation, including, remarkably, the party’s campaign chief, Tony Lee.
While findings have not yet been published, outgoing minister Michael Gove rightly suggested this could prove as damaging as the party-gate scandal.
It certainly managed to relegate a rare piece of positive news for the Tories down the agenda, after it was confirmed last week that inflation had returned to a target of 2% for the first time in almost three years.
However, even that only served to underline Sunak’s miscalculation of rushing his party to the polls before householders can feel the benefit of interest rate cuts or the government deliver on ambitious pledges on immigration.
A campaign launched in apocalyptic weather to the strains of Things Can Only Get Better, and punctuated by further self-inflicted wounds such as the prime minister’s inexplicable decision to duck out of D-Day celebrations, now threatens to unravel entirely as further revelations about betting emerge.
A campaign punctuated by self-inflicted wounds, such as the prime minister’s inexplicable decision to duck out of D-Day celebrations, now threatens to unravel entirely as further revelations about betting emerge
All this leaves Sir Keir Starmer in a seemingly unassailable position, with polls suggesting Labour could record the best election result in its history – and the Conservatives their worst.
This would represent an astonishing turnaround since 2019, when Labour suffered its worst performance since the 1930s and Boris Johnson led the Tories to a commanding majority.
Such volatility appears to be an increasing phenomenon across western democracies, one that carries warnings for both Labour and the Conservatives as populist, right-wing parties break down traditional voting patterns by capitalising on disaffection.
Despite dangerous rhetoric around Russia and a manifesto widely dismissed as fantasy economics, Reform UK now has the beleaguered Tories firmly in its sights and the prospect of the appalling Nigel Farage cannibalising the party post-election is no longer unthinkable.
Of course polls are polls and much more can happen before ballot boxes are opened next week. On this side of the Irish Sea, too, the publication of election manifestos now provides an opportunity to properly interrogate how local parties will represent voters’ interests.
The electoral landscape will likely look very different come July 5 but the long-term implications for the political system are increasingly uncertain.
