The DUP is plainly facing the prospect of enormous upheaval as it prepares for a landmark UK general election later this week, but can console itself with the belief that, regardless of the overall Westminster result, the British prime minister will still be a unionist.
It is a reasonable conclusion to draw as, despite effectively basing his entire campaign on the fact that he is not Rishi Sunak, most comments Keir Starmer has made since becoming Labour leader have indicated that he is just as committed to maintaining the union as his Conservative counterpart.
Starmer insisted last year that an Irish unity referendum was “not even on the horizon”, having previously said, if one was staged in his lifetime, he would work to keep the border in place.
This was in keeping with his reputation as a very capable but bland operator, who is reluctant to address the various disasters associated with Brexit and particularly determined not to annoy Daily Mail readers.
There can be no doubt where Starmer’s present instincts lie, although there have been persistent and intriguing suggestions that, in his younger days, Starmer was much more sympathetic to nationalism.
He spent his honeymoon on both sides of the Irish border, telling this newspaper in 2021 that, after arriving in Donegal, he fell “in love with the place”, and still wears a GAA jersey from that county during his regular five-a-side friendly soccer matches in London.
Starmer’s old speeches will be carefully studied by observers to see if there any further clues about his intentions on Ireland, but the evidence is that, as he almost certainly settles into his role as a premier with a massive majority, his initial interests will lie elsewhere.
He delivered a thoughtful address to an event at Queen’s University in Belfast last year, marking the 25th anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement, which reflected on his five important years as human rights adviser to the then newly launched Northern Ireland Policing Board.
Starmer spoke of his great pride in all the achievements which flowed from the Good Friday Agreement, said he wanted to embrace the spirit of 1998, develop the partnership between Britain and Ireland and encourage a politics which delivers for every community here.
A priority for Starmer as he takes up the reins of power must be to repeal the outgoing British government’s appalling legacy act, which is opposed by all the main Stormont parties
It may be worth making a comparison with Tony Blair, the last Labour leader to win a UK general election, who also first took up office back in 1997 with little track record of significant interventions over Irish matters.
Less than a year later, having looked closely at all the related issues, Blair was a central figure in the historic negotiations which, against many predictions, led to the signing of the Good Friday Agreement.
He also had strong Donegal connections, speaking warmly of his holidays in Ballyshannon as a child and acknowledging that his maternal grandfather was active in the Orange Order, even though a grand master in the same institution was to later crudely denounce the future prime minister for marrying a Catholic.
The key dates of Blair’s career differ sharply from Starmer in that the former was an MP at 30 and in Downing Street by 43, while that latter did not enter parliament until he was 53 and looks certain to become take the top post at the comparatively advanced age of 61.
With the Conservatives in what appears to be a permanent state of disarray, Starmer will be confidently expecting to secure a second term of office five years from now, although, by that stage, at 66, his thoughts may also be turning toward retirement.
Backers of Irish unity have increasingly looked to the same year of 2029 as the period when circumstances might justify the calling of a border referendum, to potentially take place 12 months later.
Starmer will have to confirm his position long before then, although it is also quite possible that, when 2030 comes around, a new and younger Labour premier with firmer views on Ireland could have succeeded him.
Some fascinating times lie ahead, but, for now, a priority for Starmer as he takes up the reins of power must be to repeal the outgoing British government’s appalling legacy act, which is opposed by all the main Stormont parties.
His shadow Secretary of State, Hilary Benn, promised in an Irish News interview last month that Labour would reverse the legislation, and there will be a firm expectation of early developments.
Another urgent issue is the Casement Park project, and the prime minister-in-waiting has an unmissable chance to finally authorise its construction, hopefully just in time for the range of wonderful economic and sporting opportunities surrounding the 2028 European Championships.
The normally cautious Starmer could even be tempted to wear his celebrated Donegal GAA jersey when he visits the refurbished west Belfast stadium, which can come to symbolise the heartening progress made on behalf of all sections of society since the signing of the Good Friday Agreement.
