As the Westminster election beckons, 14 years of Conservative rule looks almost certain to come to an end in a few weeks’ time.
Keir Starmer has unashamedly lurched the Labour Party to the right, enabling him to steal the keys to Downing Street on the back of support from disaffected Tory voters.
We’ve been here before, when Tony Blair rode on the wave of anger and disillusionment after an 18-year period of Conservative rule to finally bring Labour back to the seat of power.
Starmer may have pledged to abandon the Legacy Act, but seeing will be believing on that. There will continue to be a suspicion he won’t allow a situation to arise where members of the British forces once again return to court to face a day of reckoning for their actions during the conflict.
Here, the election will see a number of intriguing contests in a first-past-the-post voting system that reduces key battlegrounds to a series of head-to-head battles.
Recognising this reality, Sinn Féin pulled candidates from a number of constituencies to allow a clear run for the progressive candidate most likely to challenge for the seat.
The success of this strategy in 2019 (adopted by others too) led to Claire Hanna winning decisively in South Belfast, Stephen Farry defeating the then DUP’s Alex Easton in North Down and John Finucane ending the decades of unionist monopoly in north Belfast.
The unflappable Hanna should be home and hosed, but Farry remains in a tight contest, ironically aided by the likelihood of Tim Collins shaving precious votes from Alex Easton’s tally.
The decision of the SDLP, Greens and People Before Profit to enter the contest in North Belfast will have given hope to the DUP. Every vote for one of those parties in the constituency narrows the gap for the DUP candidate, an uncomfortable truth for these parties and a fact unlikely to be lost on voters.
In an area where the DUP’s style of politics brought division and agitation over many years, few others would welcome the seat falling this time on account of a fragmented vote. It should be John Finucane’s to lose, but every vote cast will need to be made to count.
Similarly, the main talking point of an otherwise quiet campaign to date – apart from the hilarious outworkings of the TUV’s dalliance with Reform UK – has been the nomination by Sinn Féin of Pat Cullen as its candidate in Fermanagh South Tyrone.
Put simply, there is no-one amongst our political class who can speak about health matters with anything approaching her skills or expertise.
The former general secretary of the Royal College of Nursing faces a united unionist candidate, once again underlining to nationalist and progressive voters that, like it or not, they face a binary choice, with votes for the SDLP and others only serving the interest of the TUV and DUP-endorsed unionist candidate.
The changing dynamics within Irish politics has helped propel interest in and support for constitutional change, and that was once again apparent at the latest Ireland’s Future event at the weekend in Belfast’s SSE Arena.
Thousands were in attendance to hear politicians, civic leaders and the GAA President, Jarlath Burns, discuss a range of issues.
First Minister Michelle O’Neill received warm applause when she sought to reassure the audience that Casement Park would be rebuilt on her watch, whilst DUP founder Wallace Thompson announced that he was ‘on a journey’ and encouraged nationalists to continue talking with unionist neighbours.
The most significant contribution came from former taoiseach Leo Varadkar, who called for the Irish government to move now to take the lead on planning and preparing for unity
But the most significant contribution came from former taoiseach Leo Varadkar. In his interview with Jim Fitzpatrick, Varadkar called for the Irish government to move now to take the lead on planning and preparing for unity.
He suggested that every party in the upcoming Dáil election should make unity a political objective, that the Shared Island unit needed to now expand its remit, and stated his belief the Irish government should set up a fund to help prepare the transition to unity.
Another signal that key voices now recognise the change happening and the necessity of leading to ensure all are prepared for the border poll looming ever larger in our future.
