Mike Nesbitt must be wondering what he has done to deserve his fate, condemned once more to take on the leadership of the Ulster Unionist Party. He must have been very wicked in a former life – and no, I don’t mean his time as a UTV journalist.
The UUP had little choice but to pick him. In a party of pygmies (no offence to pygmies), Nesbitt stands tallest, and at least he knows the job. But in Holywood, as in Hollywood, sequels are rarely a success
In truth, it matters little whether Nesbitt (decent bloke) makes a better fist of the job this time. The UUP is going nowhere.
Meanwhile a coronation appears to be on the cards too at the SDLP. Claire Hanna is a different kettle of fish. Very much at the top of her game, in any other country she would be in office rather than marooned on the backbenches of a parliament which has proved itself incapable of living up to its responsibilities here.
I can see her as one of those powerful female Scandi-PMs, well capable of taking down the male narcissists who generally attain high office. (There are more than a few of those around these parts.)
Unlike the UUP, which single-handedly created the conditions which brought Northern Ireland to the brink of collapse, the SDLP can hold its head high. Blessed are the peacemakers. But with peace, and the demise of John Hume, Seamus Mallon and Eddie McGrady, it has struggled to keep itself relevant – at least in the eyes of voters; and in politics, that is all that matters.
As leader of DUP-lite, Nesbitt hasn’t a chance. With a dwindling congregation, his so-called broad church embraces arch-bigots who believe Enoch Powell (once one of their number) was too liberal alongside the well-to-do bourgeoisie who think Alliance is unionist in all but name and who would happily vote for them.
The die-hards did for Doug Beattie (another nice bloke whose heart was in the right place, even when his head was elsewhere), and they will almost certainly do down Nesbitt Mark 2 too.
From a unionist perspective, the best thing Nesbitt could do is to sidle up to Gavin Robinson and pitch for the deputy leadership of a merged UUP-DUP. In the grand scheme of things, does it really matter if the member of parliament for South Antrim is Robin Swann or Paul Girvan? Of course not.
Going into opposition is another option. But realistically who would voluntarily give up a ministry (even if it was health)? The only reason for the UUP to do so would be if it gave it a realistic chance of challenging the DUP for the leadership of unionism sometime in the future.
There’s more chance of Edward Carson rising from his tomb in St Anne’s to go boozing and bopping in the Cathedral Quarter.
In a space which necessitates a rethink within unionism, Sinn Féin is hamstrung by its past. But the party of Hume can help true reconciliation within a reunited Ireland
Merging with Sinn Féin is not really a viable option for the SDLP – though the reality is that many of its voters have already taken that course. As the official opposition in Stormont, with an effective leader in the shape of the urbane Matthew O’Toole, the SDLP has the opportunity to make some headway. Sinn Féin ministers are not infallible, and the executive will create hostages to fortune.
But opposition in Stormont is not the political centre of gravity, nor is Westminster (no matter what the immediate needs of Hanna’s voters in Belfast South and Mid Down).
The course of history is heading towards Irish reunification. And here is where Hanna has an opportunity to make a difference. The SDLP retains the moral authority and credibility needed for leadership. Reconciliation is its core value.
In a space which necessitates a rethink within unionism, Sinn Féin is hamstrung by its past. But the party of Hume can help true reconciliation within a reunited Ireland by building a coalition that enables people of all backgrounds and beliefs to go down that route.
If Sinn Féin is wise, and it has proved its credentials since the Good Friday Agreement negotiations, it will recognise that.
In addition, whatever happens about a political realignment here post-reunification, northern interests will need the Hannas, Eastwoods and O’Tooles advocating for them, alongside the O’Neills, Robinsons and Nesbitts.
Hanna’s priority must be a combination of rebuilding the party on the ground (good luck with that) and holding the executive to account.
But more importantly she must focus on creating the conditions for reunification, making real the pledge in the proclamation of 1916 to guarantee “religious and civil liberty, equal rights and equal opportunities”, and making good the commitment “to pursue the happiness and prosperity of the whole nation and of all its parts, cherishing all of the children of the nation equally”.
