How do you translate personal popularity into party success? That’s the challenge facing Claire Hanna, the new leader of the SDLP as she sets out to re-build the party. Her first speech as party leader on Saturday shows that she recognises the existence of the problem, but it contained little to indicate that she has a plan on how to do it.
Suggesting that the SDLP has been “a bit stuck” recently understates its electoral decline. The party’s support among nationalists has collapsed from around 70% in 1998 to about 7% today. It no longer has sufficient support to enter the Executive.
The new leader’s explanation was that the party has not always been “quick enough on its feet”. While there may be an element of truth in this, it perhaps indicates that the SDLP has yet to fully address the reasons for its diminishing electoral popularity.
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The main reason is that the political ground in which it once had a monopoly is now occupied by Sinn Féin, the most popular party in Ireland. The SDLP’s future electoral gains therefore must rely on poaching votes from Sinn Féin, or gaining new votes from Alliance or the Ulster Unionists.
Ms Hanna’s speech suggests that the party is taking the more challenging option of competing with Sinn Féin. She said that Stormont is not “as good as it gets” and advocated instead the longer-term objective of some form of Irish unity, as yet undefined.
This was surprising since the SDLP is performing impressively as the Assembly’s official opposition. Matthew O’Toole is particularly adept at shining a light into the dark areas of the Executive’s policy making and performance.
If the SDLP does not know who it is, the electorate will not know either. Claire Hanna’s first challenge is to provide that clarity
While it is not easy to turn parliamentary performance into electoral popularity, the SDLP’s hope for the future might be better invested in challenging Sinn Féin’s record in government, rather than trying to out-nationalist it in the race for a united Ireland.
However, the party is investing more time and personnel into its New Ireland Commission, which outgoing leader, Colum Eastwood, said the party intends to bring to a new level. Some might suggest that perhaps it would be better to bring the SDLP to a new level first.
Ms Hanna’s constituency popularity is based on broad, middle ground support, rather than on the concept of Irish unity. She told the party conference that the SDLP has not always been clear “about who we are.”
Following Saturday’s conference, the party still lacks that sense of identity. If the SDLP does not know who it is, the electorate will not know either.
So, Claire Hanna’s first challenge is to provide that clarity. Without it she will have nothing to build on.