I can understand why Sinn Féin is so keen to push for a border poll right now. I've mentioned before that Brexit presented one of those rare and unexpected 'England's trouble is Ireland's opportunity' moments and Sinn Féin is desperate to exploit it.
For all the hoopla surrounding the 'Unionist outreach' project a few years ago, most key players in Sinn Féin accepted unity remained a long term ambition; but they had to continue to convince the core vote (as well as winning over new voters) that unity was just around the next corner.
Those key players also recognised the outreach project - steered, for most of the time, by Martina Anderson and Declan Kearney - singularly failed to attract small-n nationalists and small-u unionists, let alone persuade them of the merits of Irish unity anytime soon.
But Brexit changed the dynamics and evidence quickly emerged that those small-n, small-u demographs were concerned by the consequences and uncertainties of leaving the EU. Evidence also emerged of a new movement within broader nationalism (the event in the Waterfront Hall in January and the activism of #Think32) which wanted to ensure that the Remain majority in Northern Ireland wasn't abandoned.
Sinn Féin knows only too well how easily opportunities can slip from its grasp. A very soft Brexit, or no Brexit at all, would kill off the prospect of unity for this generation. The last thing the party wants is a deal for Northern Ireland which the Irish and British governments, along with the EU and unionism can buy into; accompanied by the sort of collective sigh of relief which would put people off wanting to rock the boat with anything as assuredly divisive and destabilising as a border poll. No-one at Sinn Fein's top table can say it, of course, yet the fact remains that the hardest of hard Brexits is the only outcome which advances their ultimate cause.
Which is why the party wasn't happy with Leo Varadkar's comment at the Féile an Phobail debate on Tuesday evening, that a border poll following a hard Brexit would not be "the right way forward." He is right. At the very moment the UK and Irish governments would be sorting out future post-Brexit relationships the prospect of an early border poll would do nothing but muddy the waters even more. How could there possibly be a rational debate about unity (and without that debate a border poll would be pointless anyway) against the background of the Republic reaching new trading/business/tariff arrangements with the UK?
As Varadkar noted: "A border poll in such circumstances would be divisive, with voting following sectarian and religious lines. There was also a danger it would be defeated, which would be a real shame for those who believe in Irish unity. Even if it won by 51-53 per cent, it would be nowhere near the 71 per cent endorsement of the Good Friday Agreement."
The reality, as well he knows, is that there won't be a border poll in those circumstances. The UK (through the Northern Ireland secretary of state) won't authorise it and the Irish government won't push for it. Mary Lou McDonald can complain of people choosing to bury their heads in the sand about a border poll, but she also knows the power to call one is not in her gift.
At this point, following the very bad double-whammy election setbacks in the south a few weeks ago, Sinn Féin doesn't have much room for manoeuvre on a border poll. While it may be the case that opinion poll evidence suggests growing support for unity in the south following a hard Brexit, there isn't much evidence suggesting that people want the unity campaign led by Sinn Féin. Hardening their stance is unlikely to produce electoral dividends. Rowing back, on the other hand, plays into the hands of Varadkar and most of the rest of the south's political establishment.
One other thing worries me; my sense that Sinn Féin has decided that it has enough votes for a border poll victory (I don't think it has, by the way) without needing to convince party-political unionism. That would be a crucial, potentially catastrophic error. Serious, lasting mistakes were made at the time of partition. Let's not make those same mistakes in the effort to end partition.
