THE NORTH’S first City Deal was signed off earlier this month with a tsunami of superlatives.
It was variously described as “transformative”, “monumental” and a “game changer”. Secretary of State Brandon Lewis said it would “turbocharge” the regional economy, an appropriate automotive analogy from someone regularly cast as a second hand car dealer.
The deal was valued at a conveniently rounded £1 billion, though when you scratch the freshly-applied paintwork, the actual funds committed total £850m, with the difference being ‘leveraged’ from the private sector.
The back of a fag packet calculations weren’t the only thing about the announcement to spark concerns.
Those collectively lauding the City Deal included the aforementioned Mr Lewis, the DUP First Minister Paul Givan, Sinn Féin Deputy First Minister Michelle O’Neill alongside her party colleague and Finance Minister Conor Murphy, and Belfast Lord Mayor Kate Nicholl of Alliance. The uncharacteristic ‘mom and apple pie’ consensus among this mixed political bag should set alarm bells ringing for even the most committed Pollyanna.
Yet seemingly there are many positives in the Belfast Regional City Deal, a collaboration involving the British government, the Stormont executive, the region’s two universities and some further education colleges, plus six local councils, led by Belfast City Council. The investments are supposed to be more strategic in their aims and fall under four so-called pillars – innovation and digital; tourism and regeneration; infrastructure; and employability and skills.
The capital funding is spread across more than a dozen physical projects and themed programmes. The latter, led by the universities and colleges with input from employers, are designed to “strengthen the region’s offer in growth sectors such as life and health sciences, the digital and creative industries, and advanced manufacturing”.
Arguably more mundane in their objectives are the projects that fall under infrastructure and tourism and regeneration, which while ambitious in their scale, are unlikely to add the same economic value as their counterparts under the other two pillars. For instance, this category includes a relief road in Newry, the recently unveiled Belfast Stories project in the former Bank of Ireland building on Royal Avenue, and a mountainside gondola on the lower slopes of Slieve Donard. Notably, this type of project does not qualify for central government funding, meaning the money comes only from Stormont and the councils involved.
Its supporters believe the City Deal has nurtured new thinking that has been absent in the risk averse regional civil service. They say that without this impetus, these projects just wouldn’t happen. One of those closely involved in the process said one of its main achievements thus far was that it had encouraged dialogue between Queen’s and Ulster University, something that is apparently unheard of previously. It’s certainly got people thinking more ambitiously and strategically, outside their institutional silos.
But behind the fanfares and optimism bias, there are potential drawbacks with the City Deal that may only become apparent when most of those that gave it such an eager welcome are approaching pensionable age.
Other issues, such as the impact of inflation and rising construction costs, are more immediate. The British government committed its £350m in the autumn of 2018 and it is not index linked, meaning the value of the pot could have shrunk by as much as 10 per cent in real terms by the time planning is secured for some of the built projects. The Casement Park saga serves as a stark reminder of how, despite much enthusiasm, planning approval can stall while costs soar.
There’s also an issue of accountability. While there is a board overseeing the collaboration, anybody who has ever tried to draw a line of responsibility where local and regional government intersect knows how multiple partners can dilute accountability, and facilitate convenient buck passing.
Examples in recent years, such as the rising cost of Ulster University’s Belfast campus and the promised savings from local government reform, demonstrate how the figures on which ideas are first sold become academic as time passes. If the City Deal turns out to be a raw deal, who will carry the can?
