At some point the history of our times will be written, and the author will have to address one very important question. When was the union of Great Britain and Northern Ireland lost?
Many dates could compete to be that decisive moment. One of the strongest contenders would be the Brexit referendum, when the DUP threw in its lot with the Little Englanders. Another was its decision to defenestrate Theresa May and put into power a renowned liar who promised the earth, but delivered a border down the Irish Sea.
Without question, the DUP’s pursuit of Brexit in the hope it would make the Irish border rematerialize was a nail in the GB/NI coffin.
But the seeds for Northern Ireland’s decline and fall were sown in the heady days after the signing of the Good Friday Agreement, an epoch-changing event in the history of these islands which offered so much to unionists, but was rejected.
For all the reflection in this 25th year, little attention has been paid to unionism’s determination to grasp defeat from the jaws of victory.
Through the agreement, unionism was given the opportunity to copper-fasten Northern Ireland as part of the UK.
While acknowledging the ‘legitimate’ wish of nationalists for a united Ireland, the agreement noted that “the present wish of a majority of the people of Northern Ireland, freely exercised and legitimate, is to maintain the union… it would be wrong to make any change in the status of Northern Ireland save with the consent of a majority of its people”.
Its meaning was clear. Northern Ireland was, and would remain, part of the UK while a majority of its people wanted it.
There is no doubt in my mind that, had unionism stepped up to the plate, operated the institutions, acknowledged the legitimacy of the aspiration for a united Ireland, and lived up to its pledges to respect people’s culture and traditions as part of the warp and weft of this place, the pressure for a border poll today would not be as strong, or as compelling – even with the demographic shifts.
But by doing all they could to subvert the agreement, from the outside and then from inside, unionism – and the DUP in particular – has become a recruiting sergeant for Sinn Féin and made republicans of nationalists who would have been content with the status quo had the Assembly been delivering on health, education, jobs and all the other things that materially impact on the quality of our lives.
While they continue their abstentionist approach to politics here, the DUP will further erode confidence in Northern Ireland’s ability to function; it will amplify the message that it is a failed political entity; and it will further erode any latent support it has in the rest of the UK.
Let us not forget a recent YouGov poll found that more people in Great Britain would be upset if they lost the Falklands than if Northern Ireland left the union.
Or put it another way, a handful of sheep farmers in the south Atlantic have had a greater impact on the British psyche than Donaldson, Foster, Poots et al. And that’s hardly surprising given the way they have behaved. Don’t Cry for Me Argentina should be their party anthem.
For the first half of Northern Ireland’s existence, unionism demonstrated it was unfit for office. Having been given a chance to ‘get it right this time’ or, as the agreement put it, to have a “fresh start”, unionism has proven itself to be not up to the task.
Is there a way back? I can’t see it. I wish him well, but I think Doug Beattie’s time is past – even if he is brave enough to be unionism’s de Klerk. History suggests de Klerks don’t last here – O’Neill, Faulkner, Trimble can each testify to that.
Donaldson is certainly not up to it. The party is too beholden to the TUV, to loyalist paramilitaries, and the sectarian loyal orders. In any case, he doesn’t have the wider grasp or charisma needed to lead.
What makes sense to him and his cronies, makes no sense to the rest of us.
