Barring a political earthquake, John Swinney will complete a remarkable comeback by to all intents and purposes becoming the next leader of the Scottish National Party later today.
When Mr Swinney, who is 60, stood down from the same post 20 years ago, it was widely expected that his ambition to become Scotland’s first minister had come to an end.
He did still maintain a high-profile career, holding various senior positions including that of deputy first minister, but, when he moved to the back benches just over a year ago, the belief was that he was heading towards retirement.
However, the volatile world of Scottish politics had further surprises in store and, when Humza Yousaf accepted last week that his short period at the head of the Holyrood administration was no longer sustainable, the name of Mr Swinney suddenly came to the fore again.
His only serious rival, Kate Forbes, was regarded as too socially conservative by the SNP’s coalition partners in the Green Party and, when she endorsed Mr Swinney, the outcome was clear.
He will probably be unopposed but, even if a late opponent emerges from the fringes when nominations close at noon, every mainstream analyst agrees that Mr Swinney is going to be the next SNP leader and first minister.
It is a vital appointment for the party as its campaign for Scottish independence, after years of significant progress, has run into major internal difficulties of late.
Mr Swinney’s return to power will be closely followed in Ireland, where the growing numbers who support the staging of a unity referendum identify strongly with the fortunes of the SNP.
His most recent public appearance in Belfast was in November to speak at an Ulster University conference on delivering effective government. He understands the key issues on both sides of the Irish Sea and he has been generally described as having a safe pair of political hands.
What is not yet clear is whether he has the vision and dynamism to drive the independence debate forward after a period marked by sharp policy differences and personality clashes within the SNP.
Mr Swinney’s return to power will be closely followed in Ireland, where the growing numbers who support the staging of a unity referendum identify strongly with the fortunes of the SNP
Some pro-union commentators in London, Edinburgh and elsewhere have gleefully seized on the SNP’s upheavals and concluded that the independence movement can be safely disregarded for at least another decade.
The bookmakers, who take a more hard-headed approach, disagree, and rate the prospects of the leave and remain sides in any further Scottish referendum as being neck and neck at 5/6 each.
Mr Swinney has the opportunity to demonstrate that his pragmatic instincts, after the more centre-stage approach of his predecessors, could yet allow him to leave his mark on history.
