In global affairs, 2024 has been a mix of grim continuities and some surprising developments.
Twelve months ago there was reason to hope that the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza might have been close to their end. Instead, the violence has droned on.
Last year’s optimism about a potential Ukrainian victory has evaporated, and Russia now seems to be grinding out the upper hand at huge cost in human life on both sides.
In Gaza, hopes of a ceasefire and the release of hostages sporadically loomed and fizzled out. Gazans have continued to be pounded.
The unwillingness of Benjamin Netanyahu to yield to pressure from Washington to agree a ceasefire has been a study in political ingratitude considering Biden’s unstinting support for Israel.
A mounting death toll in Gaza has damaged Israel’s international reputation, but has not shaken the support it enjoys where it matters most – in the United States and among its key European allies.
Donald Trump’s election as America’s 47th president in the wake of that failed assassination attempt and a criminal conviction was the year’s most dramatic political development, and the most telling omen for the future.
There is a well-known aphorism, often attributed to Napoleon Bonaparte, that it is better to have ‘lucky generals than good ones’. That applies to politics too, as presidents and prime ministers tend to have even less agency than generals have on the battlefield in ‘the fog of war’.
Politicians are often prey to events they cannot completely control. The new administration will quickly discover that America cannot be made great again with the stroke of a presidential pen.
While he probably owed his election to his predecessor’s misfortune in being confronted with that once-in-a-century pandemic, Joe Biden turned out to be an unlucky president.
High inflation, caused by the backwash from Covid and the war in Ukraine, shredded his reputation and wrecked the chances of his putative successor, Kamala Harris.
Trump may be a luckier incumbent. Conflicts tend to end when the warring parties have reason to embrace a negotiated settlement. That may now be the case in Moscow and Kyiv due to exhaustion from a drawn-out war.
Both may be willing to give the nod to a compromise crafted by Trump’s envoy, General Keith Kellogg. Zelensky has recently seemed more open to that prospect. Putin remains inscrutable but might be tempted.
In the middle east, it’s hard to imagine a more favourable constellation for Israel than now, with Hamas mauled, Hezbollah severely bruised, Assad toppled in Syria, Iran deflated by the eclipse of its proxies and Donald Trump in the White House.
Trump might give a green light to an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities and the annexation of the West Bank, but I have my doubts, for Trump is famously allergic to foreign entanglements.
Would he be willing to risk spurring an escalated conflict in the middle east with its inherently unpredictable consequences for the United States? The easier option would be to take credit for doing what Biden had failed to do by ending that long-running conflict.
Much will depend on how things turn out in Syria following the sudden, surprising and welcome fall of the Assad regime.
Are the Islamists who boldly ousted the dictator capable of bringing Syrians together and ruling consensually? That would be an agreeable surprise. Fingers crossed.
Peace in Ukraine and Gaza would give Trump huge bragging rights that he would surely relish. Don’t underestimate the manner in which Trump may be swayed by thoughts of his reputational legacy with just four years to serve before he becomes part of history.
Trump could also be swayed by his worst instincts, and once more be a major international disrupter, pursuing eccentric territorial ambitions in the Panama Canal and Greenland. The choice is his, but if the eve of a new year is not a time for some guarded optimism, then when is?
2024 has not been a great year for Europe. Economic frailty and gains for far-right parties have been coupled with reversals for the political centre, notably in France and Germany. Only Britain and Ireland have bucked the rightward trend.
The surge in support for Reform UK is a worrying development from an Irish point of view. I will be keen to see how Nigel Farage copes with the opportunities and risks inherent in his party’s enhanced profile.
One thing that would not surprise me is a concerted European push to deal with illegal immigration which continues to drive the electoral shift to the right.
The Trump team will not be able to deport the millions they promise, but every move they make will be flaunted in the public eye. That will raise the stakes for European governments under growing pressure to manage migrant inflows and repatriation.
As 2025 looms, alas we need once more to brace ourselves for more surprises than continuities. Let’s hope that a least some of the surprises in store for us turn out to be pleasant ones.
Daniel Mulhall is a retired Irish Ambassador, author and commentator. His latest book is Pilgrim Soul: W.B. Yeats and the Ireland of his Time (New Island Books, 2023). He can be followed on X: @DanMulhall & on Bluesky: @danmulhall.bsky.social.